FOREX-Euro edges up on speculation Spain may seek aid

Fri Sep 21, 2012 8:07am EDT

Related Topics

* Euro recovers from Thursday's sell-off, trades around
$1.30
    * Sources say Spain making plans to meet aid conditions
    * Spain aid request would boost euro but gains seen limited

    By Jessica Mortimer
    LONDON, Sept 21 (Reuters) - The euro inched higher against
the dollar in choppy trade on Friday, encouraged by speculation
that Spain may soon request aid to recover some of the ground it
lost the previous day.
    Market players reported very thin volumes as the euro 
hit a session high of $1.3048 before paring gains to last trade
up 0.1 percent at $1.2980.
    More gains could see the euro target a four-and-a-half month
peak of $1.31729 reached early this week, though traders said it
was likely to struggle to reach those levels unless Spain made a
decisive move towards seeking a bailout.
    Sources told Reuters Spain is considering freezing pensions
and speeding up a rise in the retirement aid as it attempts to
meet conditions of an international aid package. 
    This helped the euro recover strongly from a low of $1.2919
reached on Thursday, when it was dented by weak euro zone
business surveys that stoked concerns about a deepening
recession. 
    "If the euro closes above $1.30 this week we could see
(it)... drift higher next week," said Lee McDarby, head of
dealing for corporate and institutional treasury at Investec.
    "There is still prevailing dollar weakness from quantitative
easing in the U.S. and the euro has come out in a new range
which looks like it will be more stubborn." 
    The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies, with 
its index at 79.360, within sight of a six-and-a-half
month low of 78.601 hit last week in the wake of aggressive
monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
    Support for the euro was seen at Thursday's low, which stood
just above its 233-day moving average at $1.2915.
    "It is just a matter of time before Spain applies for
financing in the coming weeks and that will be euro positive,"
said Carl Hammer, chief currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.
    He expected the euro to rise, with a target of $1.31 or
slightly higher in one month's time. But it would peak at not
more than $1.34-$1.35 and Spain applying for funding would be
"the last piece of euro-positive news".
    Sterling rose to its highest in nearly 13 months
against the dollar at $1.6310, helped by UK public borrowing
data that was not as bad as expected. 
    Riskier currencies rose broadly, with the high-yielding
Australian dollar climbing 0.6 percent to $1.0519.
    
    UNCERTAINTIES WEIGH
    The euro has been buoyed recently by a European Central Bank
plan to buy the bonds of indebted euro zone countries - but it
can only do that once they request aid.
    Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has so far hesitated
over seeking a bailout, creating uncertainty in the markets.
    There are also concerns surrounding Greece, with negotiators
still short of a deal that would unlock the next instalment of
the country's 31.5-billion-euro bailout package. 
    The dollar was steady at 78.17 yen, well below a
one-month high of 79.23 hit on Wednesday after the Bank of Japan
boosted its asset-buying programme to help fuel the country's
economic recovery.
    Morgan Stanley strategists said dollar losses should be
limited by rising inflation expectations in the United States.
They re-established long dollar positions at 78.80 yen with a
target of 82.00 and a stop loss at 77.80.
    "The ability to hold above the 78.00 level would increase
our confidence that a bottom is developing," they said in a
note.
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