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METALS-Copper ends up on stimulus hopes, sheds 1 pct on the week

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Fri Sep 21, 2012 2:10pm EDT

* Copper snaps 2 weeks of gains; holds near 4-1/2-mth top
    * Recent factory data from U.S., China, Europe caps gains
    * Lead hits near eight-month high as stocks fall
    * Coming Up: U.S. CFTC commitment of traders data ; 1930 GMT

 (Recasts, adds New York dateline, updates with New York closing copper price,
adds detail and analyst comments)
    By Chris Kelly and Eric Onstad
    NEW YORK/LONDON, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Copper rose on Friday, supported by
hopes that recent stimulus measures from around the world will boost liquidity
and metals demand in a struggling global economy, especially in top raw
materials consumer China.
    Despite the firmer finish, copper failed to push higher on the week,
snapping back-to-back weekly gains, as weaker-than-expected data from the United
States, Europe and China capped a powerful rally that saw prices of the red
metal surge nearly 14 percent since early August.
    "We've skimmed a little froth out of the market in the sense that it
probably got a little bit over-bought within a very concentrated period of time
against a background of global easing," said Michael Turek, senior director on
Newedge's New York metals desk.
    "But I don't see anything destructive in the fact that we are still knocking
around $8,300. I would call that mildly constructive."
    On the London Metal Exchange (LME), three-month copper ended up
$16.50 at $8,281.50 per tonne.
    Earlier in the week, it hit a 4-1/2 month high of $8,422.
    In New York, the COMEX December contract rose 3.00 cents to settle at
$3.7890 per lb, after dealing between $3.7705 and $3.8095.
    It held within 2 percent of its own 4-1/2-month peak at $3.8395, hit on
Wednesday.
    Copper, alongside the broader financial market, has rallied on expectations
and then confirmation of quantitative easing (QE) in Europe, the United States
and Japan together with infrastructure projects in China.
    "The physical markets and the fundamentals really don't necessarily justify
the rally, so the market's having second thoughts," said analyst Leon Westgate
at Standard Bank in London.
    "The rather volatile, generally sideways trading we've seen is reflective of
that - as the market digests QE versus the still lacklustre economic backdrop."
    Westgate said he was not a buyer of base metals at current levels based on
fundamentals, but was cautious since commodity prices often ignore fundamentals
for periods of time.
    LME copper stocks MCUSTX-TOTAL increased by 2,775 tonnes this week and
Shanghai inventories jumped by 10,428 tonnes. 
    Still, the global refined copper market was facing a deepening production
deficit this year.
    In its latest monthly bulletin, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG)
said the market stood in a 473,000-tonne deficit in the first half of this year,
compared with a deficit of 131,000 tonnes in the first six months of 2011.
 
    
    LEAD HITS FRESH PEAK
    In other metals, lead futures touched their highest in nearly eight months
as LME inventories continued to fall. Three-month lead rose 1 percent to
finish at $2,288 per tonne after touching a peak of $2,299.75, the strongest
since Jan. 27.
    LME lead stocks MPBSTX-TOTAL have fallen by about a fifth since late June.
    In aluminium and tin, most of the tightness seen this week on nearby spreads
has dissipated after the September contract expired. 
    The "tom/next" spread, representing the cost to roll over an expiring
contract to the following day, in aluminium CMALT-0 was down to a $6
backwardation from as high as $40 on Tuesday and in tin CMSNT-0 fell to $4
from $25 on Wednesday.
    "Data shows that the supply demand situation on the base metals side is
getting tighter. Copper is in a deficit and the aluminium and zinc oversupply
situation is also tightening," said Daniel Briesemann, commodities analyst at
Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
    "Lead also fell more sharply than other metals in the past few months so it
is now catching up but I think it is unlikely that it will go up much more."
    Three month aluminium firmed $5 to end at $2,115 a tonne and tin
 closed at $20,725 compared with a last bid on Thursday of $20,550.
    
 Metal Prices at 1749 GMT
                                                                  
  Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2011   Ytd Pct
                                                              move
  COMEX Cu       378.45        2.55     +0.68     343.60     10.14
  LME Alum      2115.50        5.50     +0.26    2020.00      4.73
  LME Cu        8281.50       16.50     +0.20    7600.00      8.97
  LME Lead      2287.00       22.00     +0.97    2035.00     12.38
  LME Nickel   18150.00      255.00     +1.42   18710.00     -2.99
  LME Tin      20750.00     -650.00     -3.04   19200.00      8.07
  LME Zinc      2115.00        5.00     +0.24    1845.00     14.63
  SHFE Alu     15740.00       40.00     +0.25   15845.00     -0.66
  SHFE Cu*     59710.00      400.00     +0.67   55360.00      7.86
  SHFE Zin     15655.00      120.00     +0.77   14795.00      5.81
 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
 * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
 SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
    

 (Additional reporting by Silvia Antonioli in London; editing by James Jukwey)
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