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TEXT-S&P upgrades Unum Group and subsidiaries

Tue Oct 9, 2012 1:13pm EDT

Overview
     -- Unum Group's operating performance has exceeded its peers'. The 
company has also increased its diversification and maintained very strong 
capital.
     -- We are raising our long-term credit ratings on Unum Group and its U.S. 
operating subsidiaries.
     -- The stable outlook indicates the limited potential for an upgrade in 
the next 12-24 months.

Rating Action
On Oct. 9, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services raised its long-term 
counterparty credit rating on Unum Group to 'BBB' from 'BBB-'. At the same 
time, we raised our long-term counterparty credit and financial strength 
ratings on Unum's U.S. operating subsidiaries (see ratings list) to 'A' from 
'A-'. We also revised the group status of Colonial Life & Accident Insurance 
Co. to core from strategically important. The counterparty credit and 
financial strength ratings on Unum's strategically important U.K. subsidiary, 
UNUM Ltd., remain unchanged at 'A-' with a stable outlook.

Rationale
Key factors supporting the upgrade include Unum's stable operating 
performance, improved diversification through supplemental and voluntary 
product sales, and maintained statutory capital that is in excess of the 
rating. For the past several years the company's operating performance has 
exceeded its peers'. Pretax GAAP operating earnings (which exclude realized 
gains and losses and special charges) were $1.3 billion in 2010 and 2011, 
which is in excess of the rating level. We expect operating earnings to 
decline slightly in 2012 to $1.2 billion-$1.3 billion, primarily because of 
worse-than-expected claims experience in the company's U.K. operations. For 
2013, we expect earnings to increase moderately.

Unum has diversified its operations in recent years, primarily through 
supplemental and voluntary product sales. The share of consolidated premium 
income from Unum's U.S. supplemental and voluntary products and its Colonial 
Life & Accident subsidiary, which sells voluntary products through an agency 
distribution channel, has grown each year since 2004. They constituted 29% of 
premium income in 2010, up from 22% in 2007 and 18% in 2004. Conversely, Unum 
U.S.'s group income protection business (long- and short-term disability 
insurance), which had exhibited historical earnings volatility, saw its share 
of consolidated premium income decline each year since 2004. It dropped to 27% 
in 2011 from 29% in 2007 and 34% on 2004. Consolidated total adjusted capital 
(including the asset valuation reserve) for Unum U.S. has increased every year 
since 2007, and it reached $3.8 billion at year-end 2011, which was a 2% 
increase from $3.7 billion in 2010. The company's capital adequacy is in 
excess of the rating, based on our model.

For year-end 2012, we expect Unum's sales to reflect continued economic and 
payroll weakness, but to improve by about 6% from 2011 levels. We expect the 
company's pretax operating income to be $1.1 billion-$1.3 billion, which is 
slightly less than 2011 earnings.  We expect Unum to maintain a strong balance 
sheet with high-quality assets, very strong capitalization, and moderate debt. 
If the company meets our expectations, EBITDA interest coverage will be 
8x-10x, with an adjusted debt-to-total capital ratio around 25%. We also 
expect the company to maintain capitalization at the operating companies at a 
level in excess of the ratings.

Nevertheless, the still-weak economy could make it difficult for Unum to 
achieve growth and could lead to an increase in disability insurance claims. 
Unum still has significant exposure to elevated disability claims, although 
not to the same extent as it had in the past.

Outlook
The stable outlook indicates the limited potential for an upgrade in the next 
12-24 months. It reflects our expectation that Unum will continue to produce 
consistent operating results and diversify its business profile, while 
maintaining capitalization in excess of the rating. We expect the rating to be 
somewhat constrained by the still-weak economy, which could result in reduced 
growth or increased disability insurance claims incidence. We could lower the 
ratings if these conditions lower earnings to less than $1 billion or reduce 
capitalization to a level commensurate with the rating and the company is not 
willing or able to compensate with offsetting changes in financial management 
policy.

Related Criteria And Research
     -- Methodology For Assessing U.S. Insurers' Capital Adequacy Beyond The 
Financial Crisis, May 31, 2011
     -- Holding Company Analysis, June 11, 2009
     -- Analysis Of North American Life Insurance Operating Performance, May 
13, 2009
     -- Evaluating Insurers' Competitive Position, April 22, 2009

Ratings List
Upgraded
                                        To                 From
Unum Group
 Senior Unsecured                       BBB                BBB-

Provident Financing Trust I
 Preferred Stock                        BB+                BB

UnumProvident Finance Company plc
 Senior Unsecured                       BBB                BBB-

Upgraded; Outlook Action
                                        To                 From
Colonial Life & Accident Insurance Co.
UNUM Life Insurance Co. of America
Provident Life & Accident Insurance Co.
Paul Revere Life Insurance Co.
First UNUM Life Insurance Co.
 Counterparty Credit Rating
  Local Currency                        A/Stable/--        A-/Positive/--
 Financial Strength Rating
  Local Currency                        A/Stable/--        A-/Positive/--

Unum Group
 Counterparty Credit Rating
  Local Currency                        BBB/Stable/--      BBB-/Positive/--

Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on 
the Global Credit Portal at www.globalcreditportal.com. All ratings affected 
by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at 
www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left 
column.
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