TET-S&P: global economy is navigating historic times

Tue Oct 9, 2012 3:06pm EDT

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Oct 9 - The outlook for the global economy is, in a word, precarious, said
an article published by Standard & Poor's, titled "Navigating Historic
Times...With No Room For Error." Global growth has slowed and the eurozone is
back in recession.

"As a baseline forecast, we expect the global economy to continue to expand 
modestly," said Standard & Poor's Chief Global Economist Paul Sheard. "We 
expect that the U.S. will avoid the fiscal cliff and eke out about 2% growth, 
policymakers will keep a lid on the eurozone crisis and the recession there 
will remain relatively shallow, China will experience a "soft landing" in its 
growth deceleration, and Japan will grow modestly while remaining stuck in 
deflation." But the risks are stacked to the downside--and they are 
significant.

Just four years have elapsed since the global economy experienced the worst 
financial crisis and recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s, a 
twice-in-a-century kind of event. Historic analogies need to be invoked with 
caution, but we see some eerie parallels between the depressed 1930s, which 
followed the go-go 1920s, and the current period. If the Great Wall Street 
Crash of 1929 and the near collapse of the U.S. financial system in 2008 are 
treated as the respective trigger events, superimposing the current period's 
timeline on that period's means that the world is now in "1933."

In other words, the stakes are high--and for policymakers and politicians, 
there's no room for error.



The report is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on the Global Credit 
Portal at www.globalcreditportal.com. If you are not a RatingsDirect 
subscriber, you may purchase a copy of the report by calling (1) 212-438-7280 
or sending an e-mail to research_request@standardandpoors.com. Ratings 
information can also be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site by using 
the Ratings search box located in the left column at www.standardandpoors.com.
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