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METALS-Copper steady; aluminium flops to 1-month low

Wed Oct 10, 2012 12:39pm EDT

* Alcoa slashes aluminium demand growth estimate
    * China's copper physical demand poor, stocks high
    * Metals demand will improve next year on stimulus

    By Silvia Antonioli
    LONDON, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Copper was steadier and aluminium fell to its
lowest in more than a month on Wednesday, as concerns about continued demand
weakness offset fresh hopes for pro-growth policies from top metals consumer
China.
    Aluminium fell more than other metals under the weight of comments late on
Tuesday by producer Alcoa Inc which reported a third-quarter net loss and
slashed its aluminium demand forecast. 
    Base metals prices have suffered this year due to lower-than-expected demand
from top consumer China, which has seen a significant slow down in economic
growth. 
    Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange(LME)closed at $8,165 a
tonne from a close of $8,145 on Tuesday. Earlier, the metal used in power and
construction hit $8,110.50, its lowest since Sep. 26.
    "Copper demand is surprisingly low this year and I expect copper to move
sideways in the short term but there will likely be a jump in China's copper
imports at the beginning of the next year, before new projects and stimulus
measures are approved by the new government," said Eugen Weinberg, a commodity
analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
    "I believe that China will come back next year and many will be surprised to
see how much it will drive demand for all metals due to new economic measures
and infrastructure plans."
    Hopes for new stimulus policies which would boost demand for industrial
metals in China, grew in recent weeks, and found some support in Chinese media
reports this week. 
    Chinese state-backed media said major insurance firms had boosted their
combined stock holdings by more than 10 billion yuan ($1.6 billion) over the
last three trading days and would continue to support blue chip stocks and stock
markets. 
 
    Another paper said China was likely to offer incentives to spur vehicle
sales in rural areas. 
    Investors waited for data from China, including September trade figures,
third-quarter gross domestic product and industrial output over the coming week.
 
    Aluminium closed at $2,009 a tonne from a $2,055 close on Tuesday. Earlier
it hit a session low of $2,006.25 a tonne, its lowest since Sept 7.
    Analysts said the fall was fuelled by Alcoa's announcement it had slashed
its 2012 aluminium demand growth estimate by 1 percentage point to 6 percent.
    "Alcoa seems to blame weak Chinese demand for the current development but I
see it differently. I think it's not the demand in China which is depressing
prices but the developments on the production side," Weinberg said.
     "Chinese aluminium production increased by about 10 percent in the first 8
months of the year and elsewhere demand only fell by about 2 percent. This is
not enough, there is a huge oversupply at the moment."
    Tin closed at $21,825, unchanged from the close on Tuesday, while
zinc, used to galvanize steel, changed hands at $1,974 from $2,007.
Battery material lead closed at $2,197 from $2,251.50 and nickel 
at $17,670 from $17,930.
    
 Metal Prices at 1628 GMT
 Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T
  Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2011   Ytd Pct
                                                              move
  COMEX Cu       371.50       -0.55     -0.15     344.75      7.76
  LME Alum      2007.00      -48.00     -2.34    2020.00     -0.64
  LME Cu        8160.00       15.00     +0.18    7600.00      7.37
  LME Lead      2200.25      -51.25     -2.28    2034.00      8.17
  LME Nickel   17690.00     -240.00     -1.34   18650.00     -5.15
  LME Tin      21750.00      -75.00     -0.34   19200.00     13.28
  LME Zinc      1973.75      -33.25     -1.66    1845.00      6.98
  SHFE Alu     15540.00      -65.00     -0.42   15845.00     -1.92
  SHFE Cu*     58890.00     -390.00     -0.66   55360.00      6.38
  SHFE Zin     15335.00     -165.00     -1.06   14795.00      3.65
 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
 * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
 SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
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