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UPDATE 3-US gas futures end down 4 pct, first loss in six sessions

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Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:45pm EDT

* Front month remains below last week's 2012 high
    * Milder weather on tap for much of the United States
    * Nuclear power plant outages could help limit downside
    * Coming up: API oil data Tuesday, EIA oil data Wednesday

 (Recasts, updates prices to close)
    By Eileen Houlihan
    NEW YORK, Oct 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid
n early 4 percent o n M onday, pressured for the first time in six
tr ading days by milder weather forecasts and profit-taking afte r
the front month rose to a 201 2 high last week.
    "Natural gas is under selling pressure based on moderating
temperatures and considering it's had a nice run of late," said
Jay Levine, broker at enerjay, LLC in Portland, Maine.
    The front month contract rose more than 6 percent last week,
topping out o n F riday at its highest level this year amid some
cool weather in consuming regions and several nuclear power
plant outages.
    While a continuation of nuclear outages should help limit
the downside, many traders remain concerned that gas priced well
above $3 per million British thermal units will continue to lose
market share to coal for power generation.
    Front-month November natural gas futures on the New York
Mercantile Exchange slid 12.5 cents, or 3.5 percent, to
settle at $3.486 per mmBtu. The contract rose as high as $3.638
on Friday, its highest mark since early December.
    Other months ended lower as well, with the December contract
down 10.3 cents, or nearly 3 percent, at $3.774 and winter
months losing about 10 cents each. 
    In the cash market, gas bound for the NYMEX delivery point
Henry Hub NG-W-HH in Louisiana lost 3 cents on average to
$3.35, but late deals firmed to 11 cents under the front month,
from a 21-cent discount late Friday.
    Gas on the Transco pipeline at the New York citygate
NG-NYCZ6 rose 1 cent to $3.48, while Chicago gas NG-CHGC was
3 cents lower on the day at $3.48.
    The latest National Weather Service six- to 10-day outlook
issued on Sunday called for above-normal temperatures in the
Northeast and across most of the South and West and some
below-normal readings only in the Southeast and a small area in
the Northwest.
    On the nuclear front, outages totaled about 24,500
megawatts, or 24 percent of U.S. capacity, up from 20,100 MW out
on Friday, 22,400 MW out a year ago and a five-year outage rate
of about 21,600 MW. 
    
    INVENTORIES STILL HIGH
    Last week's gas storage report from the U.S. Energy
Information Administration showed that domestic gas inventories
rose the prior week by 72 billion cubic feet to 3.725 trillion.
 
    Storage still stands nearly 7 percent above last year's
levels and nearly 8 percent above the five-year average.
    (Storage graphic: link.reuters.com/mup44s)
    Inventories are at record highs for this time of year and
are likely to end the stock-building season above last year's
all-time high of 3.852 tcf.    
    Storage, now at 88 percent full, is at a level that exceeds
the average peak for the year of about 3.7 tcf typically hit in
early November. Without some unseasonably cold weather this
month, stocks are likely to grow for four or five more weeks.
    Early injection estimates for this week's EIA report range
from 28 bcf to 68 bcf versus a year-earlier build of 106 bcf and
the five-year average increase for the week of 71 bcf. 
    
    HIGH PRODUCTION BUT RIG COUNT, DRILLING LOWER  
    Data from Baker Hughes on Friday showed the gas-directed rig
count slid by 15 last week to a 13-year low of 422.
 
    The count is down 55 percent since peaking at 936 last
October.
    Drilling for natural gas has been in a near-steady decline
for the last year, but so far production has shown no
significant sign of slowing.
    (Rig graphic: r.reuters.com/dyb62s)
    While dry gas drilling has become largely uneconomical at
current prices, gas produced from more profitable shale oil and
shale gas liquids wells has kept output near record highs.

 (Editing by Peter Galloway and Grant McCool)
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