Race is tied, but most think Obama will win: Reuters/Ipsos poll

WASHINGTON Tue Oct 30, 2012 1:51pm EDT

1 of 13. U.S. President Barack Obama speaks to workers during a visit to the Bellagio Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada October 24, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. presidential race remains a dead heat one week before Election Day but most Americans think President Barack Obama will defeat Republican Mitt Romney, according to a Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll released on Tuesday.

Obama leads Romney among likely voters by 47 percent to 46 percent, a statistically insignificant margin, the online survey found. Neither candidate has held a clear lead since early October.

But 53 percent of all registered voters predicted Obama would win the November 6 election, while only 29 percent said Romney would be the victor. A majority also said that they expected Obama to win their state.

That reflects the opinion of many analysts and pollsters who say Obama holds a tactical advantage in the state-by-state battle to win the White House.

Because Obama starts off with a greater likely number of states' electoral votes, Romney must win a higher number of the seven to 10 states that remain truly competitive.

Obama also holds an advantage among the 22 percent who said they have already cast their ballots. Some 55 percent of this group said they had voted for Obama, while 40 percent said they had voted for Romney.

The four-day poll was not affected in a significant way by Hurricane Sandy because only a small fraction of the 3,293 interviews were completed after the storm hit on Monday afternoon, Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said. Some other polls have suspended their activity due to the storm.

The accuracy of Reuters/Ipsos polling is calculated using a credibility interval. In this survey, the credibility interval is 3.4 percentage points for likely voters and 2.9 percentage points for all registered voters.

(Editing by Alistair Bell and Cynthia Osterman)

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Comments (100)
zotdoc wrote:
I hope and I pray that Obama will not have another four years of wrecking our country.

Oct 30, 2012 2:16pm EDT  --  Report as abuse
Stickystones wrote:
It is not surprising that a thin majority believe Obama will be re-elected. Many people are cynical about this election and for good reason. The amount of faith the public has in the government is at an all time low. In fact, your poll reflects what those who are most vocal want to hear. Considering that Democrats have a signficant advantage in registration percentage (>53%) over Republicans, it is almost surprising that your poll on ‘registered voters’ verus ‘likely voters’ isn’t more tilted towards Obama.

Oct 30, 2012 2:18pm EDT  --  Report as abuse
KYJurisDoctor wrote:

Oct 30, 2012 2:21pm EDT  --  Report as abuse
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