UPDATE 1-Azeri oil output seen not rising before 2014
* Oil production seen falling 6 pct in 2012 * BP in trouble over falling Azeri oil production * Gas output seen steadily rising By Lada Evgrashina BAKU, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Azerbaijan expects its oil production to fall 6 percent to 42.9 million tonnes this year and start rising only in 2014, despite efforts by BP efforts to stem falling output, a government forecast obtained by Reuters showed on Thursday. Oil output is seen at 40.82 million tonnes (826,500 barrels per day) next year and 43.22 million tonnes in 2014. Falling production at the Azeri, Chirag and Guneshli (ACG) oilfields, the biggest in Azerbaijan and one of BP's largest global projects, has raised concerns in the ex-Soviet republic and prompted its president to accuse the British major of making "false promises". The new data is likely to put more pressure on BP, which had to reshuffle its staff in Baku to support a focus on crude production. A source at state oil company SOCAR told Reuters that the falling oil production is explained by "increasing geological and technological difficulties of developing onshore depleted oilfields". Azerbaijan had expected stable crude production at the BP-led consortium until the end of the contract in 2024. Plans had called for ACG to produce over 1 million barrels per day (bpd) after a third phase was completed in 2008. But after hitting 823,000 bpd in 2010, output has fallen to an average of 684,000 bpd in the first half of this year. Oil executives and diplomats told Reuters last month that BP would have to invest billions of dollars more than previously planned in order to slow the output decline. Unlike oil, natural gas output in Azerbaijan is expected to rise 5.5 percent to 27.12 billion cubic meters (bcm) this year. Production is seen further rising to 28.82 bcm in 2013. Azerbaijan is already a major gas exporter in the region. Following is the table of the Azeri government forecasts of oil and gas production: 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 oil output, mln T 45.6 42.9 40.82 43.22 43.08 42.92 gas output, bcm 25.7 27.12 28.82 29.76 29.88 30.27
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