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TEXT - S&P cuts Phones4u Finance PLC

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Fri Nov 16, 2012 12:09pm EST

Overview
     -- We anticipate that the operating margin of U.K.-based mobile phone 
retailer Phones4u Finance PLC (Phones4u) will continue to decline due to 
strong competition. This is likely to pressure the company's credit metrics.
     -- We are therefore lowering our long-term corporate credit rating on 
Phones4u to 'B' from 'B+'.
     -- In addition, we are lowering our issue rating on Phones4u's GBP125 
million revolving credit facility to 'BB-' from 'BB', and our issue rating on 
the company's GBP430 million senior secured notes to 'B' from 'B+'.
     -- The stable outlook reflects our view that Phones4u has the ability to 
maintain positive discretionary cash flow and to offset margin pressure to 
some degree through revenue growth driven by new store openings. 
Rating Action
On Nov. 16, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered to 'B' from 'B+' 
its long-term corporate credit rating on U.K.-based mobile phone retailer 
Phones4u Finance PLC (Phones4u). The outlook is stable. 

At the same time, we lowered our issue rating on Phones4u's GBP125 million super
senior revolving credit facility (RCF) to 'BB-' from 'BB'. We also lowered our 
issue rating on the company's GBP430 million senior secured notes to 'B' from 
'B+'.

Rationale
The downgrade reflects our view that Phones4u's gross operating margin will 
continue to decline due to strong competition, and increasing marketing and 
new store costs. The ongoing decline in the margin is likely to pressure 
Phones4u's business and financial risk profiles, which we currently assess as 
"weak" and "aggressive," respectively.

Phones4u achieved 11% year-on-year sales growth in the 12 months to Sept. 30, 
2012, driven by new store openings and increased marketing investment. 
However, the company's Standard & Poor's-adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 
12.8%, from 15.0% in the same period to Sept. 30, 2011. We forecast that in 
the full year to Dec. 30, 2012 (financial 2012), reported EBITDA will be 
broadly in line with 2011, at about GBP120 million. 

While Phones4u's year-to-date sales growth of about 15% is broadly line with 
our forecasts for financial 2012, flat earnings and the declining operating 
margin have caused the company's credit metrics to fall below our guidelines 
for a 'B+' rating. This rating reflected our previous assumptions of both 
sales and EBITDA margin growth, and consequently significant deleveraging in 
terms of our lease-adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio. For financial 2012, we now 
anticipate that Phone4u's adjusted debt to EBITDA will be close to 5x, and 
funds from operations (FFO) to debt will be slightly less than 15%, with both 
ratios being weak for an "aggressive" financial risk profile.

Phones4u has been unable to grow its earnings despite sales growth on the back 
of its rapid store expansion strategy (it opened about 70 new stores in 2012). 
This is because Phones4u faces increasing price competition from its main 
competitor Carphone Warehouse Europe (not rated), and from mobile network 
operators such as Everything Everywhere (BBB-/Positive/A-3); Vodafone Group 
PLC (A-/Stable/A-2); and O2, which is part of Telefonica S.A. (BBB/Watch 
Neg/A-2). 

Phones4u's performance in financial 2012 remains reliant on the fourth 
quarter, during which it usually generates about 40% of its earnings. 
Furthermore, Phones4u also has product concentration risk, with 20%-25% of 
sales being of the iPhone from Apple Inc. (not rated). Due to the limited 
availability of the latest iPhone 5 model, we do not believe that Phones4u is 
likely to see an uplift in sales from this new product until 2013. 

In our base-case scenario, we forecast revenue growth in the mid-single-digit 
range in 2013, driven by ongoing store openings and stable demand for new 
mobile devices as consumers continue to upgrade their phones to access the 
latest technology. Our forecasts assume ongoing pressure on margins, with an 
adjusted EBITDA margin of about 11.5% in 2013 and beyond. This translates into 
adjusted EBITDA of about GBP125 million, adjusted debt to EBITDA of more than 
4.5x, and FFO to debt of about 15% in 2013.

The rating on Phones4u continues to reflect our assessment of the company's 
"aggressive" financial risk profile following its acquisition by private 
equity firm BC Partners (not rated) in April 2011. Although we take a positive 
view of Phones4u's adequate cash position and largely undrawn RCF, the 
company's financial risk profile remains close to the "highly leveraged" 
category, due to increasing operating lease commitments and flat EBITDA. 

The rating continues to reflect Phones4u's position as the second-largest 
independent retailer, behind Carphone Warehouse Europe, in the mature, but 
highly competitive, U.K. mobile phone market. The market is characterized, in 
our opinion, by volatile demand due to its dependency on discretionary 
consumer spending and strong competition from direct sales channels from 
mobile telecommunications companies. This risk is further aggravated by the 
inherent revenue volatility from ongoing innovation in mobile devices; 
independent retailers' ability to access the latest devices; and Phones4u's 
reliance on maintaining strong contractual relationships with mobile telecoms 
companies. 

Liquidity
We assess Phones4u's liquidity profile as "adequate" under our criteria. We 
believe that the company's sources of liquidity will comfortably cover its 
needs in the near term. Our liquidity assessment is supported by our forecast 
that the company's sources of liquidity, including free operating cash flow, 
cash on hand, and access to debt facilities, will exceed its uses by at least 
1.5x over the next 12 months. 

The following factors underpin our assessment of "adequate" liquidity: 

     -- Our forecast of free operating cash flow of about GBP40 million in 2013.
     -- Phones4u's cash on hand of GBP56 million as of Sept. 30, 2012, and
GBP114 
million available under a GBP125 million RCF, of which GBP50 million matures in 
2013. Apart from that, there are no meaningful debt maturities before 2017.
     -- Our forecast of future capital expenditures (capex) of about GBP25 
million; no meaningful working capital financing needs; and an absence of 
dividend payments. 
     -- Enough headroom under the financial covenants for the RCF, in our 
view, to withstand an unexpected drop in EBITDA of more than 30% in 2013. 

Recovery analysis 
The issue rating on Phone4u's GBP125 million RCF due 2017 is 'BB-', two notches 
above the corporate credit rating. The recovery rating on the RCF is '1', 
indicating our expectation of very high (90%-100%) recovery prospects in the 
event of a payment default. 

The issue rating on Phone4u's GBP430 million senior secured notes due 2018 is 
'B', the same level as the corporate credit rating. The recovery rating on the 
senior secured notes is '3', indicating our expectation of meaningful 
(50%-70%) recovery in the event of a payment default. 

The issue and recovery ratings on the RCF and senior secured notes are 
supported by: 
     -- Our valuation of the company as a going concern in an event of 
default; 
     -- The company's U.K. jurisdiction, which we consider as favorable to 
secured creditors; and 
     -- The relatively comprehensive security and guarantee package provided 
to the RCF lenders and noteholders. 

On the other hand, the recovery rating on the senior secured notes is limited 
by the notes' subordination to the RCF, which the documentation stipulates 
would rank prior to the notes on enforcement of the collateral. 

Our simulated default scenario assumes a combination of deteriorating 
macroeconomic conditions and intense pressure on pricing and product mix, 
leading to a year-on-year decline in revenues and margins. We believe that 
these risks, combined with the company's high leverage, would trigger a 
payment default in 2015, at which point EBITDA would have declined to 
approximately GBP66 million. 

As part of our review of the recovery prospects, we have revised the 
hypothetical year of default to 2015 from 2014, to reflect Phone4u's 
"adequate" liquidity and bullet repayment structure. Assuming a stressed 
EBITDA multiple of 5.5x yields a stressed enterprise value at default of about 
GBP360 million. 

We then deduct about GBP26 million of enforcement costs, resulting in a net 
enterprise value of GBP334 million. On this basis, we see recovery prospects in 
the 90%-100% range for the RCF, which we assume would be fully drawn at the 
point of default. (We envisage that the GBP50 million portion of the RCF due 
2015 would be cancelled). This results in GBP255 million of residual enterprise 
value for the GBP450 million of senior secured notes outstanding, translating 
into coverage of 50%-70% and a recovery rating of '3'.

Outlook
The stable outlook reflects our view that Phones4u should be able to generate 
positive discretionary cash flow and offset ongoing margin pressure to some 
degree through revenue growth on the back of new store openings and continued 
demand for new mobile devices.

We could lower the rating if Phones4u does not achieve revenue growth in the 
mid-single digits, or if its gross operating margin continues to deteriorate, 
causing earnings to fall, adjusted debt to EBITDA to sustainably exceed 5x, or 
discretionary cash flow to turn negative. Ratings pressure may also arise if 
Phones4u adopts more aggressive financial policies to fund shareholder 
remuneration or if it increases capex significantly to expand into new areas 
of business.

A positive rating action would be linked to stabilizing margins and strong 
earnings growth, with adjusted debt to EBITDA falling to less than 4x and FFO 
to debt rising to more than 20%.

Related Criteria And Research
All articles listed below are available on RatingsDirect on the Global Credit 
Portal, unless otherwise stated.
     -- Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global 
Corporate Issuers, Sept. 28, 2011
     -- Methodology: Business Risk/Financial Risk Matrix Expanded, May 27, 2009
     -- 2008 Corporate Criteria: Analytical Methodology, April 15, 2008
     -- Criteria Guidelines For Recovery Ratings On Global Industrial Issuers' 
Speculative-Grade Debt, Aug. 10, 2009 

Ratings List
Downgraded; CreditWatch/Outlook Action
                                        To                 From
Phones4u Finance PLC
 Corporate Credit Rating                B/Stable/--        B+/Negative/--

Downgraded; Unchanged
                                        To                 From
Phones4u Finance PLC
 Senior Secured
  GBP430 mil. bnds due 12/31/2018         B                  B+
   Recovery Rating                      3                  3
  GBP125 mil. fltg rate revolving credit  BB-                BB
  fac (GBP50 mil. due 2013; GBP75 mil. due  
  03/17/2017) bank ln                   
   Recovery Rating                      1                  1
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