TEXT-S&P revises Achmea Hypotheekbank outlook to negative

Fri Nov 16, 2012 1:01pm EST

Overview
     -- In our view, Dutch banks are exposed to the potential of a more 
protracted downturn in The Netherlands and the wider eurozone.
     -- We are therefore revising our economic risk score for The Netherlands 
and our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment to '3' from '2'.
     -- As a result, we are revising the outlook on Achmea Hypotheekbank N.V. 
(AHB) to negative from stable and affirming the 'A/A-1' ratings. 
     -- The negative outlook reflects our view of potential pressure on AHB's 
risk position if continued weakness in the Dutch housing market results in a 
sustained and material rise in credit losses.

Rating Action
On Nov. 16, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services revised its outlook on 
Achmea Hypotheekbank N.V. (AHB) to negative from stable. At the same time, we 
affirmed its 'A/A-1' long- and short-term counterparty credit ratings. 

Rationale
We have reviewed the Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) on The 
Netherlands. Against the backdrop of a potentially more protracted downturn in 
The Netherlands and wider eurozone, we have revised our economic risk score 
for The Netherlands and our BICRA assessment to '3' from '2' (for more 
information, see "Various Rating Actions Taken On Dutch Banks Due To Increased 
Economic Risks," published Nov. 16, 2012 on RatingsDirect on the Global Credit 
Portal).
. 

We have also lowered our anchor--or starting point for our ratings--for banks 
operating in The Netherlands, including AHB, to 'bbb+' from 'a-'. 

As a result, we have revised down AHB's stand-alone credit profile (SACP) to 
'bbb' from 'bbb+', reflecting our view of the impact of moderately higher 
economic risk in The Netherlands on AHB's SACP.

The revision of our economic risk score for The Netherlands incorporates our 
view of a prolonged housing market slump with potentially adverse consequences 
for consumer confidence and ripple effects to other sectors of the economy. We 
also take into consideration the potential for further pressure on the Dutch 
public and private sectors as a result of proposed measures to reduce the 
budget deficit. Finally, we consider that the economic downturn in the wider 
eurozone will drag on economic growth given the Dutch economy's relatively 
high export dependency.  

The affirmation of the ratings on AHB partly reflects its "strategically 
important" status to its parent, Achmea B.V. (Achmea). AHB remains an 
important distribution channel for the insurance group, and bank products are 
viewed as complementary to insurance products and have cross-selling 
opportunities. Prior to the lowering of the anchor for Dutch banks, the 
long-term issuer credit rating (ICR) on AHB was two notches above the SACP as 
it was capped at one notch below the 'A+' ratings on Achmea. In line with our 
criteria for rating subsidiaries of insurance companies, this notching has now 
been increased to three notches above the SACP, leaving the ICR unchanged.

The affirmation also reflects the downward revision of our assessment of the 
bank's capital and earnings to "strong" from "very strong" as a result of 
higher risk weights being applied to AHB's exposures. At the same time, we 
revised our assessment of its risk position to "strong" from "adequate". Our 
assessment of the bank's capital and earnings reflects our expectation that 
its risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio, according to Standard & Poor's 
measures, will increase from 12.6% at end-December 2011 (based on revised risk 
weights) to between 13% and 13.5% over the next 24 months on the back of 
modest internal capital generation, low risk-weighted asset (RWA) growth, and 
the absence of dividends. 

Our "strong" assessment of the bank's risk position reflects our view of AHB's 
limited growth in exposures, focus on prime residential mortgage lending with 
a conservative risk appetite, and loan loss experience that compares favorably 
with peers in countries that have an economic risk score of '3' and a similar 
product mix.

We continue to assess the bank's business position as "weak" given its 
monoline focus and small market share. Our view of funding and liquidity as 
"moderate" remains unchanged and reflects AHB's wholesale-funded profile and 
high asset encumbrance. 

Outlook
The negative outlook reflects our view of potential pressure on AHB's risk 
position if continued weakness in the Dutch housing market results in a 
sustained and material rise in credit losses. 

We could lower the ratings if a rising trend in credit losses above what we 
typically observe for mortgage-focused peers in countries that have an 
economic risk score of '3' lead us to revise down our risk position assessment 
to "adequate" from "strong". We could also lower the rating if we consider 
that its strategic importance to the group was reducing or if we lower the 
ratings on its parent, Achmea. 
  
We could revise the outlook to stable if AHB's loan portfolio remains 
resilient to wider housing market pressures and the bank maintains its 
conservative risk profile. 

Ratings Score Snapshot
Issuer Credit Rating           A/Negative/A-1

SACP                           bbb
 Anchor                        bbb+
 Business Position             Weak (-2)
 Capital and Earnings          Strong (+1) 
 Risk Position                 Strong (+1)
 Funding and Liquidity         Moderate (-1)

Support                        +3
 GRE Support                   0
 Group Support                 +3
 Sovereign Support             0
Additional Factors             0

Related Criteria And Research
All articles listed below are available on RatingsDirect on the Global Credit 
Portal, unless otherwise stated.

     -- Various Rating Actions Taken On Dutch Banks Due To Increased Economic 
Risks, Nov. 16, 2012
     -- Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: The Netherlands, Nov. 16, 
2012
     -- No Pain, No Gain: How The Housing Market Correction Is Affecting Dutch 
Banks, June 27, 2012
     -- Banks: Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011
     -- Group Rating Methodology And Assumptions Nov. 9, 2011
     -- Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, 
Nov. 9, 2011
     -- Bank Hybrid Capital Methodology And Assumptions, Oct. 24, 2011
     -- Bank Capital Methodology And Assumptions, Dec. 6, 2010

Ratings List

Ratings Affirmed; CreditWatch/Outlook Action
                                        To                 From
Achmea Hypotheekbank N.V.
 Counterparty Credit Rating             A/Negative/A-1     A/Stable/A-1
 Certificate Of Deposit                 A/A-1              A/A-1   
 Senior Secured                         A                  
 Senior Unsecured                       A                  
 Subordinated                           A-                 



Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on 
the Global Credit Portal at www.globalcreditportal.com. All ratings affected 
by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at 
www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left 
column.
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