TEXT-Fitch affirms Kemper Corp's ratings; outlook stable

Wed Nov 21, 2012 11:10am EST

Nov 21 - Fitch Ratings has affirmed Kemper Corporation's (Kemper)
holding company ratings, including the senior debt rating at 'BBB-'. Fitch has
also affirmed the Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) ratings of Kemper's operating
subsidiaries at 'A-'. The Rating Outlook is Stable. A full list of ratings
follows this press release.

The affirmation reflects Kemper's earnings and balance sheet ratios consistent
with Fitch's median guidelines for the rating category. The ratings also reflect
debt servicing capability from holding company cash and dividend capacity at its
life insurance subsidiaries along with continued weak underwriting results and
catastrophe losses in its property/casualty operations.

Kemper's underwriting results continue to lag Fitch's personal lines coverage
universe but remains in line with expectations for its rating. For the first
nine months of 2012, the company reported a combined ratio of 105.4%, which
included 6.5 percentage points of catastrophe losses and 2.1 points of favorable
reserve development. This compares to a 111% combined ratio for the prior year
period, which included 12.8 percentage points of catastrophe losses and 2.4
points of favorable reserve development. Kemper continues to take steps to
improve profitability through rate increases and improved risk selection.

Kemper announced a preliminary estimate of pre-tax catastrophe losses related to
Superstorm Sandy of approximately $45 million. This would approximate full year
catastrophe losses at $117 million, or just below 15% of prior year surplus of
the property/casualty companies. Fitch views this level of catastrophe losses as
material; however, the agency anticipates that this will not lead to a reduction
in statutory capital.

Kemper is reviewing strategic options for Kemper Direct and has ceased all
direct marketing activities, due to profitability issues around this business.
Concurrent with the decline in revenue, Kemper has initiated expense reductions
in an effort to meet its profitability targets. Fitch views this decision
favorably, as Kemper Direct has been a drag on earnings for several years.

The company's earnings-based interest coverage remained weak at 3.5x as of Sept.
30, 2012, albeit improved from 1.6x for the prior year period. Fitch views this
as being somewhat offset by strong holding company cash levels and solid
dividend capacity from the life insurance subsidiaries, which covers Kemper's
interest expense 10.5x.

Fitch views Kemper's property/casualty companies as adequately capitalized and
its life companies as strongly capitalized. NAIC risk-based capital ratios were
approximately 305% and 500% of the company level action, respectively, as of
Sept 30, 2012. Net premiums written-to-surplus for Kemper's property/casualty
operations remains acceptable for its line of business at approximately 1.9x.
The company's financial leverage ratio remains in line with median guidelines at
25.2% as of Sept. 30, 2012 and 28.9% when goodwill is excluded.

Fitch believes the quality of Kemper's investment portfolio has improved over
the past four years with reduced equity exposure and concentration risk. Kemper
maintains exposure to limited liability investment companies and limited
partnerships, which increases the volatility of its investment income.

Kemper's Life/ Health segment continues to generate stable earnings with minimal
volatility. The segment reported operating earnings of $103 million for the
first nine months of 2012, relatively unchanged from the prior year period at
$105 million. Sales of its new accident & health products continue to trend
favorably.

Although Kemper's property/casualty and life companies carry the same rating,
they are evaluated separately and could diverge. Fitch views the life companies
as stronger than the property/casualty companies but since both companies
support the holding company debt, this difference is somewhat neutralized.

Factors that could lead to a downgrade include interest coverage (as defined by
holding company cash and statutory dividend capacity divided by interest
expense) below 7x; a combined ratio above 106% for a sustained period; a debt to
capital ratio that exceeds 30%; an RBC ratio for the property/casualty and life
insurance entities below 200% and 250%, respectively; and catastrophe losses
exceeding 15% of prior year surplus.

Rating triggers that could lead to an upgrade include meaningful and sustained
improvement in underwriting results on par with higher rated peers and
significant improvement in capitalization.

Fitch has affirmed the following ratings with a Stable Outlook:

Kemper:
--IDR at 'BBB';
--$610 million senior notes at 'BBB-';
--$325 million credit facility at 'BBB-'.

Trinity Universal Insurance Co.
United Insurance Co. of America
Union National Life Insurance Co.
Reliable Life Insurance Co.:
--Insurer Financial Strength rating at 'A-'.


Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'. The ratings above
were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has been
compensated for the provision of the ratings.

Applicable Criteria & Related Research:
--'Insurance Rating Methodology' (Oct. 2012).

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
Insurance Rating Methodology - Amended
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