TEXT - S&P cuts RadioShack rating to 'CCC+'

Wed Nov 21, 2012 4:05pm EST

Related Topics

Overview
     -- In our view, U.S. consumer electronic goods and services retailer 
RadioShack's continued poor operating and financial performance trends will 
continue over the near term because of fierce competition and a mix shift 
toward lower-margin mobility products.
     -- We believe that it will be very difficult for the company to improve 
its performance and gross margin in the next year, given the changing industry 
dynamics, mobility accounting for more than 50% of sales, the lack of a 
permanent CEO (with a comprehensive strategy for the company) and chief 
merchandising officer .
     -- We are lowering our corporate credit and senior unsecured debt ratings 
on the company to 'CCC+' from 'B-'.
     -- The outlook is negative, reflecting our view that if there is 
deterioration in the company's liquidity position, we would consider lowering 
the rating.

Rating Action
On Nov. 21, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its corporate 
credit and senior unsecured debt ratings on Fort Worth, Texas-based RadioShack 
Corp. to 'CCC+' from 'B-'. The outlook is negative.

The recovery rating on the senior unsecured debt remains '4', indicating our 
expectations for average (30% to 50%) recovery in the event of a payment 
default.

The downgrade of RadioShack reflects our view that it will be very difficult 
for the company to improve its gross margin in the fourth quarter of this 
year, given the highly promotional nature of year-end holiday retailing in the 
wireless and consumer electronic categories. It is our belief that all 
segments of the company's business will remain under margin pressure for 2012 
and into 2013.

Rationale
The ratings on RadioShack reflect Standard & Poor's assessment that the 
company's financial risk profile is "highly leveraged." This reflects, in our 
view, weaker credit metrics with debt leverage in the 12x area and modest cash 
flow generation, but "adequate" liquidity in the near term. We characterize 
the company's business risk profile as "vulnerable," because of the short 
product cycles, the secular change in the products offered, the fiercely 
competitive nature of the retail consumer mobility industry and its much lower 
margins, and the company's vulnerability to weak consumer spending because of 
limited discretionary income.

Given that the third quarter's operating performance was poorer than our 
expectations, we do not expect any improvement in operating results for the 
rest of the year. We base this view on the secular changes in consumer 
electronics and the extremely competitive environment for mobility products, 
which now accounts for over half of RadioShack's sales. Although the company 
historically has been very good at adapting to changes in the industry, it is 
our view that RadioShack will find it extremely challenging to improve margins 
in the next year, given that mobility is such a large part of its overall 
results and the mix is so heavily skewed to lower-margin mobility products.

We score RadioShack's management and governance as "weak," because of our 
negative views on the company's strategic positioning and risk management. In 
our opinion, it will be difficult for the company to execute a successful 
turnaround strategy until a new CEO and chief merchandising officer are hired. 

We forecast that credit metrics will remain at or near current levels for the 
remainder of fiscal 2012 and into 2013, because we expect continued pressure 
on gross margins. We estimate adjusted total debt to EBITDA in the 12x area, 
EBITDA interest coverage of about 1.2x, funds from operations (FFO) to total 
debt in the 18% area, and EBITDA margin in the 2% to 3% range. This is based 
on the following assumptions:
     -- Flat to modest sales growth in the signature segment, but we believe 
sales could remain down in the wireless category (low-single digits) as well 
as in the company's other segments;
     -- Gross margins of about 36%;
     -- Capital expenditures of between $50 million to $60 million in the next 
two years;
     -- The refinancing of at least $175 million of the convertible notes due 
2013 and the repayment of the remainder with cash balances; and
     -- Cash flow from operations of about $40 million.

Although the company launched Verizon's mobility products in its stores almost 
a year ago, it is our belief that Verizon products still have not gained the 
traction that the company and Verizon had expected and it will be a long-term 
endeavor, given the competitive landscape in this category. We believe that 
this leaves the company heavily dependent on sales of Sprint Nextel Corp. and 
AT&T Inc. mobility products.

Liquidity
We believe RadioShack's liquidity is "adequate" to meet its needs over the 
next 12 months. Our view of the company's liquidity is based in part on our 
expectation that the company will maintain its sizable cash balances, although 
this could become increasing more difficult over the next year if the company 
does not begin to stabilize its margins. Furthermore, we expect the company to 
refinance about $175 million of its $375 million convertible note issue due 
Aug. 1, 2013, and repay the remainder with its cash balances. 

Our view of the company's liquidity profile incorporates the following 
expectations:
     -- We expect liquidity sources (including cash, discretionary cash flow, 
and availability under its $450 million revolving credit facility maturing in 
2016) will exceed uses by 1.2x or more. Furthermore, we estimate that there 
will be no significant shortfalls in the second year. 
     -- We also expect that liquidity sources will continue to exceed uses, 
even if EBITDA were to decline by 15% and even if debt were to increase by 15%.
     -- We believe that the company will maintain sufficient availability 
under its revolver, even though availability was reduced by $56.3 million 
because it did not meet its 1-to-1 fixed-charge ratio for the 12 months ended 
Sept. 30, 2012. 
     -- In our assessment, the company has generally sound relationships with 
the banks, given its recent completed refinancing and fairly prudent financial 
risk management. 

We estimate that RadioShack had a cash balance of about $518 million and about 
$394 million of availability under its $450 million revolving credit facility 
as of Sept. 30, 2012. We expect RadioShack's cash balances and availability 
under its revolving bank facility to be sufficient for its capital spending 
and working capital needs. 

Recovery analysis
For the complete recovery analysis, see the recovery report on RadioShack, to 
be published as soon as possible following this report, on RatingsDirect.

Outlook
Our negative outlook on RadioShack reflects our expectation that the company's 
operating trends will remain at their new lower level. We expect flat to 
modest sales growth in the signature segment as well as mixed sales 
performance in the company's other segments for the remainder of 2012, given 
weak industry dynamics. We are not estimating any meaningful improvement in 
margins or credit metrics in the near term.

We would consider a downgrade if the company's liquidity position were to 
deteriorate such that the company no longer maintains sizeable cash balances 
and availability begins to decline under its revolving credit facility. 

Although unlikely, we could consider a stable outlook if we begin to see 
stabilization in sales results in the company's signature segment, solid 
results in RadioShack's mobility platform, and stable credit metrics. For this 
to occur, we would have to see gross margin improvement of at least 100 basis 
points or more and revenue growth in the low- to mid-single digits or more, or 
some combination of higher gross margin and sales growth. We would also 
consider an upgrade if the company reduced its debt such that total debt to 
EBITDA remained at less than 9x, other credit metrics improved, and operating 
performance stabilized.

Related Criteria And Research
     -- Business Risk/Financial Risk Matrix Expanded, Sept. 18, 2012
     -- Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Sept. 28, 2011
     -- Criteria Guidelines For Recovery Ratings On Global Industrials 
Issuers' Speculative-Grade Debt, Aug. 10, 2009 
     -- 2008 Corporate Criteria: Analytical Methodology, April 15, 2008

Ratings List


Downgraded; Recovery Rating Unchanged
                                        To                 From
RadioShack Corp.
 Corporate Credit Rating                CCC+/Negative/--   B-/Negative/--
 Senior Unsecured                       CCC+               B-
  Recovery Rating                       4                  4

Temporary contact numbers: Jayne M. Ross (973-735-3761); Chuck Pinson-Rose 
(917-280-6289).




Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on 
the Global Credit Portal at www.globalcreditportal.com. All ratings affected 
by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at 
www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left 
column.

Primary Credit Analyst: Jayne M Ross, New York (1) 212-438-7857;
                        jayne_ross@standardandpoors.com
Secondary Contact: Charles Pinson-Rose, New York (1) 212-438-4944;
                   charles_pinson-rose@standardandpoors.com


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 Time          USN   User   Headline
 21/11/2012    WNA9  WE     S&P DOWNGRADES RADIOSHACK TO 'CCC+'
 15:41:11      31    SCRIP  FROM 'B-'; OTLK NEG
 Overview -- In our view, U.S. consumer electronic goods and services retailer
RadioShack's continued poor operating and financial performance trends will
continue over the near term because of fierce competition and a mix shift toward
lower-margin mobility products. -- We believe that it will be very difficult for
the company to improve its performance and gross margin in the next year, given
the changing industry dynamics, mobility accounting for more than 50% of sales,
the lack of a permanent CEO (with a comprehensive strategy for the company) and
chief merchandising officer . -- We are lowering our corporate credit and senior
unsecured debt ratings on the company to 'CCC+' from 'B-'. -- The outlook is
negative, reflecting our view that if there is deterioration in the company's
liquidity position, we would consider lowering the rating. Rating Action On Nov.
21, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its corporate credit and
senior unsecured debt ratings on Fort Worth, Texas-based RadioShack Corp. to
'CCC+' from 'B-'. The outlook is negative. The recovery rating on the senior
unsecured debt remains '4', indicating our expectations for average (30% to 50%)
recovery in the event of a payment default. The downgrade of RadioShack reflects
our view that it will be very difficult for the company to improve its gross
margin in the fourth quarter of this year, given the highly promotional nature
of year-end holiday retailing in the wireless and consumer electronic
categories. It is our belief that all segments of the company's business will
remain under margin pressure for 2012 and into 2013. Rationale The ratings on
RadioShack reflect Standard & Poor's assessment that the company's financial
risk profile is "highly leveraged." This reflects, in our view, weaker credit
metrics with debt leverage in the 12x area and modest cash flow generation, but
"adequate" liquidity in the near term. We characterize the company's business
risk profile as "vulnerable," because of the short product cycles, the secular
change in the products offered, the fiercely competitive nature of the retail
consumer mobility industry and its much lower margins, and the company's
vulnerability to weak consumer spending because of limited discretionary income.
Given that the third quarter's operating performance was poorer than our
expectations, we do not expect any improvement in operating results for the rest
of the year. We base this view on the secular changes in consumer electronics
and the extremely competitive environment for mobility products, which now
accounts for over half of RadioShack's sales. Although the company historically
has been very good at adapting to changes in the industry, it is our view that
RadioShack will find it extremely challenging to improve margins in the next
year, given that mobility is such a large part of its overall results and the
mix is so heavily skewed to lower-margin mobility products. We score
RadioShack's management and governance as "weak," because of our negative views
on the company's strategic positioning and risk management. In our opinion, it
will be difficult for the company to execute a successful turnaround strategy
until a new CEO and chief merchandising officer are hired. We forecast that
credit metrics will remain at or near current levels for the remainder of fiscal
2012 and into 2013, because we expect continued pressure on gross margins. We
estimate adjusted total debt to EBITDA in the 12x area, EBITDA interest coverage
of about 1.2x, funds from operations (FFO) to total debt in the 18% area, and
EBITDA margin in the 2% to 3% range. This is based on the following assumptions:
-- Flat to modest sales growth in the signature segment, but we believe sales
could remain down in the wireless category (low-single digits) as well as in the
company's other segments; -- Gross margins of about 36%; -- Capital expenditures
of between $50 million to $60 million in the next two years; -- The refinancing
of at least $175 million of the convertible notes due 2013 and the repayment of
the remainder with cash balances; and -- Cash flow from operations of about $40
million. Although the company launched Verizon's mobility products in its stores
almost a year ago, it is our belief that Verizon products still have not gained
the traction that the company and Verizon had expected and it will be a
long-term endeavor, given the competitive landscape in this category. We believe
that this leaves the company heavily dependent on sales of Sprint Nextel Corp.
and AT&T Inc. mobility products. Liquidity We believe RadioShack's liquidity is
"adequate" to meet its needs over the next 12 months. Our view of the company's
liquidity is based in part on our expectation that the company will maintain its
sizable cash balances, although this could become increasing more difficult over
the next year if the company does not begin to stabilize its margins.
Furthermore, we expect the company to refinance about $175 million of its $375
million convertible note issue due Aug. 1, 2013, and repay the remainder with
its cash balances. Our view of the company's liquidity profile incorporates the
following expectations: -- We expect liquidity sources (including cash,
discretionary cash flow, and availability under its $450 million revolving
credit facility maturing in 2016) will exceed uses by 1.2x or more. Furthermore,
we estimate that there will be no significant shortfalls in the second year. --
We also expect that liquidity sources will continue to exceed uses, even if
EBITDA were to decline by 15% and even if debt were to increase by 15%. -- We
believe that the company will maintain sufficient availability under its
revolver, even though availability was reduced by $56.3 million because it did
not meet its 1-to-1 fixed-charge ratio for the 12 months ended Sept. 30, 2012.
-- In our assessment, the company has generally sound relationships with the
banks, given its recent completed refinancing and fairly prudent financial risk
management. We estimate that RadioShack had a cash balance of about $518 million
and about $394 million of availability under its $450 million revolving credit
facility as of Sept. 30, 2012. We expect RadioShack's cash balances and
availability under its revolving bank facility to be sufficient for its capital
spending and working capital needs. Recovery analysis For the complete recovery
analysis, see the recovery report on RadioShack, to be published as soon as
possible following this report, on RatingsDirect. Outlook Our negative outlook
on RadioShack reflects our expectation that the company's operating trends will
remain at their new lower level. We expect flat to modest sales growth in the
signature segment as well as mixed sales performance in the company's other
segments for the remainder of 2012, given weak industry dynamics. We are not
estimating any meaningful improvement in margins or credit metrics in the near
term. We would consider a downgrade if the company's liquidity position were to
deteriorate such that the company no longer maintains sizeable cash balances and
availability begins to decline under its revolving credit facility. Although
unlikely, we could consider a stable outlook if we begin to see stabilization in
sales results in the company's signature segment, solid results in RadioShack's
mobility platform, and stable credit metrics. For this to occur, we would have
to see gross margin improvement of at least 100 basis points or more and revenue
growth in the low- to mid-single digits or more, or some combination of higher
gross margin and sales growth. We would also consider an upgrade if the company
reduced its debt such that total debt to EBITDA remained at less than 9x, other
credit metrics improved, and operating performance stabilized. Related Criteria
And Research -- Business Risk/Financial Risk Matrix Expanded, Sept. 18, 2012 --
Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Sept. 28, 2011 -- Criteria
Guidelines For Recovery Ratings On Global Industrials Issuers' Speculative-Grade
Debt, Aug. 10, 2009 -- 2008 Corporate Criteria: Analytical Methodology, April
15, 2008 Ratings List Downgraded; Recovery Rating Unchanged To From RadioShack
Corp. Corporate Credit Rating CCC+/Negative/-- B-/Negative/-- Senior Unsecured
CCC+ B- Recovery Rating 4 4 Temporary contact numbers: Jayne M. Ross
(973-735-3761); Chuck Pinson-Rose (917-280-6289). Complete ratings information
is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal at
www.globalcreditportal.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be
found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com. Use the
Ratings search box located in the left column. Primary Credit Analyst: Jayne M
Ross, New York (1) 212-438-7857; jayne_ross@standardandpoors.com Secondary
Contact: Charles Pinson-Rose, New York (1) 212-438-4944;
charles_pinson-rose@standardandpoors.com No content (including ratings,
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output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse
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Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not
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any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the
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following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on
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of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. To
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users are single user-dedicated and may ONLY be used by the individual to whom
they have been assigned. No sharing of passwords/user IDs and no simultaneous
access via the same password/user ID is permitted. To reprint, translate, or use
the data or information other than as provided herein, contact Client Services,
55 Water Street, New York, NY 10041; (1) 212-438-7280 or by e-mail to:
research_request@standardandpoors.com. Copyright (c) 2012 by Standard & Poor's
Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. In addition to CreditWire, Standard
& Poor's also offers RatingsDirect, the online source for real-time, objective
credit ratings and research; and RatingsXpress, a real-time, customizable
digital feed of credit information. If you are interested in becoming a
subscriber and would like more information on Standard & Poor's real-time
information products and services, please call: HONG KONG (852) 2533-3500;
LONDON (44) 20-7176-7176; MELBOURNE (61) 3-9631-2000; NEW YORK (1) 212-438-7280;
PARIS (33) 1-4420-6758 NORMAL RATINGS S&P Downgrades RadioShack To 'CCC+' From
'B-'; Otlk Neg yes
FILED UNDER: