VEGOILS-Palm oil slips on investor caution, suffers third monthly loss

Fri Nov 30, 2012 5:25am EST

Related Topics

* Prices need to trade at 2,200 ringgit level for next 4-6
wks -Mistry
    * Palm oil still eyes 2,353 ringgit -technicals
    * Malaysia's November palm exports up 3.9 pct -ITS
    * Exports up 5.2 pct for same period -SGS

 (Updates prices, adds SGS exports data)
    By Chew Yee Kiat
    SINGAPORE, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures
edged lower on Friday and posted their third straight monthly
loss, with investors staying cautious after top analysts warned
that record high stocks would weigh on prices in the new year.
    But losses were limited by a surprise increase in Malaysian
exports in November from a month ago, easing concerns that
record high stocks would climb further for the month. 
    Exports rose to 1.66 million tonnes in November from
October's 1.61 million, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services
said on Friday. Another surveyor, Societe Generale de
Surveillance, reported November shipments at 1.65 million
tonnes, up from last month's 1.57 million.  
    "The export surprise is likely to limit the downside because
 end-stocks are going to be flat to slightly lower for November.
The market is also taking some time to digest the analysts'
comments," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in
Malaysia.     
    The benchmark February contract on the Bursa
Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed down 0.7 percent at 2,370
ringgit ($780) per tonne, off an earlier low at 2,359 ringgit, a
level not seen since Nov. 14. For the month, prices posted a 5
percent loss.
    Total traded volumes were thin at 20,776 lots of 25 tonnes
each compared to the usual 25,000, underlining investor caution.
    Technicals showed palm oil's target at 2,353 ringgit per
tonne remained unchanged, and a break below will lead to a
further drop to 2,288 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang
Tao. 
    Palm oil prices need to trade at the 2,200 ringgit level for
the next 4-6 weeks to attract demand that could reduce and clear
stocks, top industry analyst Dorab Mistry said at an Indonesian
industry meeting on Friday. 
    Leading analyst James Fry of LMC International raised issues
such as uncertainty ahead of Chinese, and possibly Indian,
import rules, although Thomas Mielke of Oil World provided a
more upbeat forecast for palm oil prices.    
    Analysts and traders surveyed by Reuters at the conference
saw 2013 average palm oil prices at 2,500 ringgit, down 17.1
percent from 3,016 ringgit calculated so far for this year.
    
    In related markets, Brent crude oil slipped towards $110 a
barrel on Friday as a lack of progress in U.S. budget talks to
avert a fiscal crisis muddied the outlook for demand in the
world's biggest oil consumer. 
    In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December
delivery lost 0.2 percent in late Asian trade. The
most-active May 2013 soybean oil contract on the Dalian
Commodity Exchange edged up 0.2 percent.      
  Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1006 GMT
                                                                  
  Contract        Month    Last   Change     Low    High  Volume
  MY PALM OIL      DEC2    2145   -25.00    2128    2156     299
  MY PALM OIL      JAN3    2302   -18.00    2293    2325    2439
  MY PALM OIL      FEB3    2370   -16.00    2359    2391   10556
  CHINA PALM OLEIN MAY3    6756   +20.00    6662    6760  802986
  CHINA SOYOIL     MAY3    8590   +20.00    8520    8608  683694
  CBOT SOY OIL     JAN3   49.96    -0.16   49.82   50.25   10125
  NYMEX CRUDE      JAN3   87.78    -0.29   87.47   88.03   13691
                                                                  
  Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
  CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
  Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
  Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
 ($1=3.04 ringgit)

 (Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
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