Japan's LDP set for big win in Sunday election: polls

TOKYO Fri Dec 14, 2012 2:01am EST

Japan's main opposition Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) leader and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe makes a speech during a campaign for the December 16 lower house election in Ageo, north of Tokyo December 11, 2012. REUTERS/Shohei Miyano

Japan's main opposition Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) leader and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe makes a speech during a campaign for the December 16 lower house election in Ageo, north of Tokyo December 11, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Shohei Miyano

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TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is on track for a stunning victory in Sunday's election, returning to power with hawkish former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the helm, and possibly ending Japan's political gridlock.

Opinion polls by the Asahi, Yomiuri and Nikkei newspapers on Friday forecast that the LDP was headed for a hefty majority in the powerful, 480-seat lower house of parliament.

The LDP and its smaller ally, the New Komeito party, could even gain the two-thirds majority needed to break through a policy deadlock that has plagued the world's third biggest economy since 2007.

An LDP win on Sunday would usher in a government committed to a tough stance in a territorial row with China, a pro-nuclear power energy policy despite last year's Fukushima disaster and a radical recipe of hyper-easy monetary policy and big fiscal spending to end persistent deflation and tame a strong yen.

Japanese business sentiment worsened for a second straight quarter in the three months to December and will barely improve next year, a central bank survey showed on Friday, strengthening the case for the Bank of Japan to take bolder action to support an economy already in recession.

Between 30 percent and nearly 50 percent of voters were undecided with just days to go, the surveys showed. Experts said that was unlikely to affect the general trend, although turnout will probably fall below the 69.28 percent seen in the last lower house election in 2009.


Contributing to the indecision is a fragmentation of the political landscape that has resulted in a dozen parties, some of them just weeks old, contesting the election, and confusion over policy differences between the main contenders.

"Unlike the past two (lower house) elections, the main points of contention are not so clear and in that sense, it is hard for voters to understand," said Yukio Maeda, a political science professor at the University of Tokyo.

"But if there is no huge news, bad or good, in the next few days, there is unlikely to be a shift that is beneficial or detrimental to any particular party," he said.

The surveys showed that Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which surged to power three years ago promising to pay more heed to consumers than corporations and break bureaucrats' stranglehold on policymaking, could win fewer than 70 seats. That would be its worst showing since its founding in 1998, the Nikkei said.

The new right-leaning Japan Restoration Party, created by popular Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto and now led by outspoken nationalist Shintaro Ishihara, was struggling and might win fewer than 50 seats, the Asahi newspaper showed.

If the LDP and the New Komeito control two-thirds of the lower house they could enact legislation even if it is rejected by the upper chamber, where they currently lack a majority.

Since 2007, no ruling bloc has had a majority in the upper house, which can block bills other than treaties and the budget.

But over-riding the upper house is a cumbersome and time-consuming process, so the LDP and its ally will be aiming to win a majority in that chamber in an election for half its seats set for July.

(Reporting by Linda Sieg; Editing by Paul Tait)

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Comments (2)
VonHell wrote:
In some way this will be good for the world… at least as a lesson.
Today the world is divided over:
the european way: of balanced public finances and spending with austerity and sacrifices needed for a sustainable future putting aside the illusion of growth…
The american way: paradoxal duet of pseudo spending “cuts” (since there are none in fact) and a dream of a balanced budget (even if the debt only increases) and a massive toxic assets buying program to keep the illusion of growth with inflation, at the same time saving the rich of bad bets… with some help of christmas season to make numbers to back the plan while is possible…
And now the new japanese way: if you think the american way as a extreme of the european way… this will give a new definition of extreme…
Japan today is a copy of US… big deficit, huge white elephants, toxic assets program … but adding now:
To the huge deficit: massive public spending, puting all measures for a balanced budget aside.
To the white elephants(like paying alone for the reconstruction and clean up of the Fukushima mess without nationalize the power and insurance companies): Massive build up of the armed forces… for what? war?
To the economic worries: intensify the disputes with China, even if not by a snap of a finger, China showed how dependent Japan is by importing everything of daily use and only selling cars to China…
No wonder the japanese companies sentiment is bad… many are deep out of competitiveness, taking huge losses, indebted and trying to squiize the last cash flow from japanese banks to keep afloat… since their credit rating is junk or near that…
And how to pay for all that? since the falling current account surplus just to roll the debt is a worry today… Abe said he is prepared to print unlimited amounts of money… and i believe him…

It will be interesting to see how this will unfold… but hardly a surprise…

Dec 14, 2012 3:04am EST  --  Report as abuse
Rhino1 wrote:

I couldn’t agree more with your assessment.

Abe will print money without end (just like the FED) and he is going to invest this “virtuell” money in projects which will in no way address the issues Japan is facing.
His plans will not contribute to a reform or restructuring of the country and it will not benefit from any kind of multiplyer effect, which generally is the idea behind public spending.

The old boys network is back and this means the death knell for Japan.

Dec 15, 2012 2:58am EST  --  Report as abuse
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