TEXT - Fitch revises Nielsen Holdings NV outlook to stable

Wed Dec 19, 2012 2:34pm EST

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Dec 19 - Fitch Ratings has affirmed its Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) for
Nielsen Holdings, N.V. (Nielsen), and Nielsen Finance LLC and Nielsen Finance
Co. (collectively, Nielsen Finance) at 'BB'. The Rating Outlook has been revised
to Stable from Positive. The Outlook revision reflects Fitch's expectations that
a credit profile consistent with a higher rating is not expected within the next
12 to 24 months. A full rating list is shown below.

On December 18, Nielsen announced a definitive agreement to acquire Arbitron 
Inc. The transaction is valued at approximately $1.3 billion and will be funded 
entirely with cash/new debt. Nielsen noted that it has obtained commitments to 
fund the transaction. The transaction is expected to close as soon as customary 
closing conditions are met and regulatory review is completed.

Fitch has and continues to expect Nielsen to deploy cash flows towards 
acquisitions. While Fitch was not anticipating an acquisition of this size, 
Nielsen has the financial flexibility to absorb it and maintain current ratings.
Fitch calculates pro-forma unadjusted gross leverage at approximately 4.6x. 
Fitch believes Nielsen will be able to continue to reduce gross leverage levels 
as Fitch expects EBITDA will grow in the low- to mid-single digits over the next
two years, coupled with mandatory debt amortization payments. 

Nielsen has publicly stated its goal to reach investment grade (including on its
most recent investor conference discussing the planned acquisition), but has not
provided a leverage target or a rationale for maintaining investment-grade 
ratings. Fitch's concerns remain around the uncertainty of Nielsen's long-term 
financial policy (including a change in its investment-grade goal) and the risk 
to the balance sheet from a private equity exit. Nielsen noted in its public 
remarks that it would disclose additional information regarding financial 
policy, including returning capital to shareholders, at its earnings call in 
February. 

At the current ratings, the above concerns are mitigated by Nielsen's free cash 
flow (FCF) profile. Fitch expects Nielsen to generate FCF in the $300 
million-$400 million range per annum over the next several years (without 
adjusting for the Arbitron Inc. acquisition). This will provide Nielsen with the
financial flexibility to satisfy mandatory debt amortization, make small 
acquisitions, and institute balanced shareholder-friendly programs. 

Key Rating Drivers:

--Nielsen was much more resilient during the downturn than other media 
companies, given the contractual and diversified nature of its revenue stream 
and the benign competitive environment. The company exhibited revenue and EBITDA
growth, as well as positive FCF, through the trough of the downturn. 

--Nielsen's Watch and Buy businesses are well positioned in their respective 
markets. The ratings reflect the risk that competitive threats may emerge over 
time. Increased competition could result in revenue pressure (lost share), 
incremental costs (talent/sales/services), and some FCF pressure (investments in
offerings). However, the complexity and significant investments associated with 
attempting to replicate Nielsen's offerings create meaningful barriers to entry.


Fitch believes Nielsen's liquidity is sufficient. At Sept. 30, 2012, liquidity 
was composed of $325 million of cash on hand and $558 million available under 
the $635 million senior secured revolver due in 2016. In the 12 months ended 
Sept. 30, 2012, Fitch calculates the company generated $367 million of FCF. 

Adjusting for Nielsen's October market activity, but not for the Arbitron 
acquisition, total debt at Sept. 30, 2012 was approximately $6.3 billion, 
consisting primarily of $4.2 billion in secured term loans and revolver 
borrowings; $215 million of senior unsecured notes due 2014; $1.1 billion of 
senior unsecured notes due 2018; and $800 million of senior unsecured notes due 
2020. The company has been active in managing its near-term maturities, and they
are manageable over the next several years. Fitch calculates unadjusted gross 
leverage as of Sept. 30, 2012 at 4.0x (adjusting for October market activity). 

In addition to the debt noted above, the company has $288 million of 6.25% 
mandatory convertible subordinated notes due 2013, which are afforded 100% 
equity credit under Fitch's hybrid criteria. These notes will automatically 
convert on Feb. 1, 2013 (less than three years) into common equity and have a 
set conversion rate (a max of 2.1739 and a min of 1.8116). The notching of the 
mandatory convertible instruments reflects Fitch's hybrid criteria, which 
typically notches such hybrid securities two notches down from the IDR.

The notching on Nielsen Finance's senior secured debt reflects the security 
provided to the lenders. 

What Could Trigger a Rating Action

Positive: Absent a clear leverage target statement, continued improvement in 
operating trends with gross leverage less than 4x.

Negative: Additional debt-funded acquisitions that materially increased 
leverage, or shareholder-friendly policies that increased debt in the near term,
and kept pro forma unadjusted gross leverage above 4.5x, would pressure the 
ratings. 

Fitch has affirmed the following ratings:

Nielsen
--IDR at 'BB'; 
--Mandatory convertible subordinated notes at 'B+'.

Nielsen Finance
--IDR at 'BB'; 
--Senior secured bank facility at 'BB+';
--Senior unsecured notes at 'BB'.
The Rating Outlook is Stable.
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