EURO GOVT-Strong auction pushes Spanish yields to 10-month lows

Thu Jan 10, 2013 8:04am EST

Related Topics

* Spanish bond auction finds strong demand

* Spanish debt rallies, safe-haven Bunds fall

* ECB leaves refinancing rate unchanged at 0.75 pct

By Marius Zaharia

LONDON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Spain's benchmark bond yields fell to 10-month lows on Thursday after Madrid kicked off its challenging 2013 funding programme with a strongly bid auction of mostly two-year debt.

Safe-haven Bunds fell after the auction, but losses were limited as investors kept positioning light before the European Central Bank's monthly news conference. The ECB left interest rates unchanged at 0.75 percent.

Spain sold 5.82 billion euros worth of new 2015 bonds and re-opened 2018 and 2026 debt - more than the 4 billion to 5 billion euros targeted, as investors bid more than at previous auctions of similar-dated paper.

Improved appetite for high-yielding assets this year after the United States averted a fiscal crisis with a last-minute budget deal was the main reason behind the strong result, analysts said.

"It was definitely a strong auction, they exceeded the targeted amount which is a good sign for the first auction of the year," said Norbert Aul, rate strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

"Supply will take its toll and will be heavy going forward, however we have a positive outlook for Spanish paper."

Two-year debt led the rally in Spain with yields falling 26 basis points to 2.20 percent, while Spanish 10-year yields fell below 5 percent for the first time since March 2012.

While the market responded well to the auction results, concerns remain about Spain's ability to complete the most challenging funding programme in the euro zone this year.

The two-year bond, which was the focus of the sale, falls within the remit of the OMT, an ECB short-dated bond buying programme that could be activated if Madrid asks for a bailout from its euro zone partners.

While that backstop ensures constant demand for two-year paper, appetite for longer-term debt - more sensitive to foreign investor demand - is little tested.

"The real test here will clearly be the issuance of a new 10-year bond," Commerzbank rate strategist Michael Leister said.

"Two-year paper is not a robust indicator (of how solid Spain's market access is), so from a more strategic point of view you don't get much out of this auction."

Spain has not auctioned a new 10-year bond since November 2011, focusing on shorter-dated paper for which it usually finds strong domestic demand. That strategy is risky, however, as the amount of debt to be paid back near term is constantly growing.

ECB SIGNALS

The other key event of the day was the ECB rate-setting meeting. In line with expectations, the bank said it would keep its key refinancing rate at a record low of 0.75 percent and its deposit facility rate at zero percent.

Investors' attention will shift to the bank's 1330 GMT news conference for any signals from President Mario Draghi on the likelihood of future rate cuts. In December, he said the ECB had discussed a deposit rate cut, sending two-year German yields into negative territory.

"Yields have moved higher since the lows in December, there's been less safe-haven bids and more of a positive tone. So the market would be surprised if he were bearish," Investec fixed income strategist Elisabeth Afseth said.

A pessimistic assessment of the euro zone economy from Draghi may push Bunds higher, but the most likely scenario is a cautiously upbeat tone from the ECB chief.

"The ECB might be a bit more upbeat, so chances of a rate cut might recede. You could argue it's a negative (for Bunds) but I'm not convinced. It's all about future data," the trader said.

Bund futures were 21 ticks lower at 143.37. Ten-year German yields were 2 bps higher at 1.50 percent, while two-year yields were up half a basis point at 0.064 percent.

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