FOREX-Euro at 11-month high vs dollar as euro-zone fears abate

Mon Jan 14, 2013 4:41pm EST

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* Spain borrowings from ECB fall in December
    * Euro vs yen hits highest since May 2011
    * Yen slumps broadly on Bank of Japan expectations

    By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
    NEW YORK, Jan 14 (Reuters) - The euro climbed to an 11-month
high versus the dollar on Monday and was broadly supported
against major European currencies as investors pared
expectations of monetary easing from the European Central Bank
and the outlook improved for Spain, the region's fourth largest
economy.
    The single currency shared by 17 European countries also
extended gains against the yen, touching its highest level since
May 2011, as Japan's government applied more pressure on its
central bank to ease monetary policy, contrasting sharply with
the ECB's stance.
    However, after hitting the 11-month high just above $1.34
against the dollar, the euro pared gains, weighed down by data
showing output at euro zone factories fell for a third straight
month in November. 
    Nevertheless, the euro posted sharp gains against the Swiss
franc and pound. Against the franc, the euro rose to a 13-month
high. The euro also hit a nine-month peak versus sterling.
    "The next penny for the single currency is likely to be to
the upside, driven by an incredible shift in yield differentials
to the detriment of the dollar," said Andrew Wilkinson, chief
economic strategist, at Miller Tabak & Co in New York.
    "Markets love round numbers and we estimate $1.3500 is a
reasonable near-term target as yield-hungry investors scurry
back into the euro currency."   
    Also helping the euro's cause was a report showing reduced
dependence of Spanish banks on ECB funding. Data from the Bank
of Spain showed net borrowing from the ECB dropped to 357.3
billion euros in December, down 2.1 percent from November's
level. Spanish borrowings hit a high of 411 billion in August.
 
     The euro was last up 0.2 percent against the dollar
at $1.3377, retreating from a high of $1.3403, its strongest
since late February 2012. 
    Win Thin, global head of emerging market currency strategy
at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, also said $1.35 is a key
level for the currency pair since it would mark a break out of
the 2012 range of roughly $1.2040 to $1.3486.
    ECB President Mario Draghi's upbeat tone since its
policy-setting meeting last Thursday has pushed the euro 2.4
percent higher against the greenback. The recent gains account
for most of the euro's 1.3 percent appreciation so far in 2013.
    Draghi suggested an interest rate cut was off the agenda for
now and pointed to signs of improvements in the euro zone
economy as well as in financial markets, which set a supportive
tone for the euro. 
    Some strategists, however, believe the euro's impressive
gains have been too swift, leaving the unit vulnerable to a
pullback.
    Declining borrowing costs for highly indebted Spain and
Italy have allayed fears about the euro zone's debt crisis, but
the region's economic backdrop remains unimpressive with
weaker-than-expected  industrial production data. 
    "This data is a reminder that the region's economy remains
fragile and weak," said Brown Brothers' Thin. "Draghi managed to
push back expectations of easing, but if we continue to see soft
data like this, the possibility of an ECB rate cut becomes more
probable."
    Draghi's comments in Europe contrast with Japan, where Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe said on Sunday the central bank must set a
2-percent inflation target as a medium-term, not long-term,
objective. 
    This indicates the central bank would have to print more yen
to boost the economy. 
    Against the yen, the euro was up 0.5 percent at 119.56 yen
, having earlier hit 120.12 yen, its highest since May
2011. This came on top of a more than 3 percent rise last week.
 
    YEN, SWISS FRANC FALL
    The dollar rose 0.2 percent at 89.35 yen . The
greenback earlier hit 89.67 yen, its highest since June 2010,
after breaching an options barrier at 89.50 yen. Traders said,
however, it could struggle ahead of another reported options
barrier at 90.00 yen.
    Japan last week approved a $117 billion stimulus package,
the biggest spending boost since the financial crisis, in an
effort to support the economy. 
    Along with the yen, the Swiss franc - both currencies are
sought during financial market stress - came under pressure as
sentiment toward higher-risk assets improved.
    The euro last traded at 1.2330 francs, up 1.2
percent. The single euro zone currency hit a high of 1.2341
francs, highest since December 2011.
    Against the pound, the euro was up 0.6 percent at 83.19
pence. It rose to a high of 83.28 pence, the euro's
strongest level since April last year.
    Also on Monday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave
no indication on how long the Fed's asset-buying program will
last. Instead, he focused on the need to raise the U.S. debt
ceiling.
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