TEXT-Fitch revises Polk County SD, Fla. otlook to stable, ratings affirmed

Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:01pm EST

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Jan 28 - Fitch Ratings affirms its ratings on the following Polk County
School District, Florida's (the district) outstanding obligations:

--$137.6 million infrastructure sales tax revenue bonds at 'BBB+'; and
--Implied unlimited tax general obligation (ULTGO) at 'AA-'.

In addition Fitch Ratings affirms its ratings on the following Polk County
School Board Financing Corp., FL's outstanding certificates of participation
(COPs):

--$1.1 million COPs, series 2001A, at 'A+';
--$7.9 million refunding COPs, series 2003B, at 'A+';
--$49.8 million refunding COPs, series 2010A, at 'A+'; and
--$2.4 million refunding COPs, series 2010B, at 'A+'.

The Rating Outlook is revised to Stable from Negative for the sales tax bonds,
and remains Stable for the COPs and Implied ULTGO.

SECURITY

The sales tax revenue bonds are secured by a senior lien on a one half cent
local government sales surtax and a debt service reserve fund satisfied by
surety bonds.

The COPs are secured by lease payments made by the district to the trustee
pursuant to a master lease purchase agreement. Lease payments are payable from
legally available funds of the district, subject to annual appropriation by the
Polk County School Board. The district is required to appropriate funds for all
outstanding leases on an all-or-none basis. In the event of non-appropriation,
all leases will terminate, and the district would, at the trustee's option, have
to surrender all lease-purchased projects for the benefit of owners of the COPs
which financed or refinanced such projects.

SENSITIVITY/RATING DRIVERS

IMPROVED SALES TAX COVERAGE: The revision in Outlook to Stable reflects the
steady improvement of sales tax revenues over the last 24 months resulting in
improved coverage of debt service.

SOUND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT: The implied ULTGO rating of 'AA-' reflects the
district's history of sound financial management and conservative budgeting
practices contributing to adequate reserve levels.

MODERATE DEBT RATIOS: Debt levels should remain moderate given current capital
needs and absence of additional borrowing plans. The district has an
above-average level of variable-rate demand bonds outstanding compared to other
school districts.

ECONOMY STILL IN RECOVERY MODE: The economy is still demonstrating weakness as a
poor housing market has pressured the tax base, and unemployment rates, although
improved, remain high. County building permit numbers have improved slightly and
new construction efforts previously put on hold are beginning to resume.

COPS APPROPRIATION RISK: The one-notch distinction between the implied ULTGO and
COPs rating incorporates the slightly enhanced risk of annual appropriation. The
all-or-none appropriation feature of the master lease and the essential nature
of leased assets, which are subject to surrender in the event of
non-appropriation, temper this risk.

CREDIT PROFILE

Polk County lies on the Interstate 4 corridor, 25 miles east of Tampa and 35
miles southwest of Orlando. It has a 2010 population of 602,788 which is up 23%
since 2000.

IMPROVED SALES TAX PERFORMANCE

Fiscal 2012 sales tax receipts increased by 6.2% to $32.3 million resulting in
maximum annual debt service (MADS) coverage of an improved 1.22x. This follows a
3.2% increase in revenues for fiscal 2011 and MADS coverage of 1.15x.

A year ago, Fitch noted early signs of stabilization, as sales tax collections
had been improving from the prior year. This trend continued in fiscal 2012 and,
for the first four months of fiscal 2013, actual sales tax collections are up by
6% from the same prior year period. The positive trend is similar to other
counties nearby and reflects the minor economic improvement that is occurring in
the county.

Tax collections can decline by approximately 18% before coverage of MADS falls
below 1.0x. Collections have not fully recovered to pre-recession levels, having
peaked at $36 million in fiscal 2007.

The debt service reserve fund requirement is currently satisfied by surety
bonds; providers are Assured Guaranty Municipal and National Public Finance
Guarantee, neither of which is rated by Fitch.

SOUND FINANCIAL OPERATIONS

Financial operations have historically been sound and unrestricted fund balances
have consistently exceeded the district's policy equal to 5% of general fund
revenues and transfers in. The district has managed fiscal operations the last
two years by prudently using its American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA)
and Federal Education Jobs Bill funding to supplement the declines in state
funding and falling property tax revenues due to declining tax base values.
Reserves were increased in fiscals 2010 and 2011 primarily as a result of the
receipt of these funds and with the plan to use the reserves to offset future
declines in revenues.

Management budgeted the use of $22.7 million in reserves for fiscal 2012, but
with conservative revenue forecasts and prudent management of vacant positions
and overall expenditures, a significantly lower $4.1 million was used. The
unrestricted general fund balance at fiscal end 2012 was $50 million or a still
satisfactory 7.7% of general fund spending. This follows unrestricted and
unreserved fund balance levels of 9.8% and 8.7% in fiscals 2011 and 2010,
respectively.

Fitch views positively the consistency with which the district has outperformed
projections, having expended on average only 95% of its budget during the
preceding five fiscal periods.

SOME USE OF RESERVES LIKELY

The district adopted the fiscal 2013 general fund budget with a $19.5 million
(2.8% of budget) use of total general fund reserves, which would reduce the
general fund unrestricted fund balance to a projected $31.5 million or a slim
4.5% of the district's $693 million general fund budget. Management's practice
is to manage its budget to its 5% fund balance policy. Management has indicated
to Fitch that budget performance through the first five months of fiscal 2013 is
positive. A decline in reserves to levels below policy would pressure the
rating.

VARIABLE-RATE AND DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE

The district has variable-rate debt outstanding totaling $125 million or 30% of
total debt. Fitch considers the district's variable-rate exposure above a
prudent level, as it exposes the issuer to the possibility of unexpected and, in
extreme cases, unaffordable future financial demands given the limited revenue
and budgetary flexibility exhibited by school districts generally.

The district's variable-rate position is hedged with derivative contracts with
Citibank, N.A (Long Term IDR of 'A' by Fitch) with a negative net mark-to-market
value of $34.8 million as of June 30, 2012. Fitch will continue to monitor the
district's administration of its derivative position, which exposes the district
to counterparty risks not commonly present for school districts with highly
limited financial flexibility.

STRONG COP SECURITY

Legal provisions under the master lease are strong, requiring an all-or-none
appropriation. In the event of non-appropriation, the district would relinquish
rights to its pledged school facilities which represent approximately 20% of
total facilities. Fitch considers this a strong incentive to appropriate.

While the district may use any legally available revenues for COP debt service,
the district has used proceeds from the 1.5-mill capital outlay tax. The capital
outlay millage is authorized by state law up to 1.5 mills. Up to three-fourths
of the proceeds of the capital levy is available for lease payments. Effective
July 1, 2012, the three-fourths limitation was waived for lease purchase
agreements entered into prior to June 30, 2009, but the majority of the
district's COP debt, and corresponding leases, were issued after this date. The
district will use 0.84 mills (56% of the 1.5 mills) for COP debt service in
fiscal 2013, leaving a satisfactory cushion beneath the 75% state cap. The
district expects no additional new money COPs to be issued in the near future.

LONG-TERM OBLIGATIONS

Overall debt levels are average at 2.5% of taxable assessed value (TAV) and
$1,048 per capita. Annual debt service is budgeted at $50.4 million in fiscal
2013, or an affordable 6.8% of combined general fund and debt service budgeted
spending. Amortization of all debt is rapid at 68% of par in ten years. Debt
levels are expected to remain stable, as no additional long-term debt is
presently being contemplated.

The district participates in the statewide multiple-employer pension plan (FRS).
For fiscal 2012, the district's annual contribution was $32 million, equal to a
manageable 5% of general fund spending.

The district offers an implicit subsidy for other post employment benefits
(OPEB) as required by state law. The district continues to fund the liability on
a pay-as-you-go basis with a fiscal 2012 contribution of $3.5 million or 0.5% of
spending. This payment represented 35% of the district's annual OPEB cost of
$10.2 million, which if contributed in full would equal a still manageable 1.6%
of fiscal 2012 general fund spending.

DIVERSIFYING BUT STILL PRESSURED ECONOMY

Historically known for its citrus and phosphate mining industries, Polk County's
economy has diversified in recent years into health care, light manufacturing,
and distribution. Residents benefit from the proximity of the Tampa and Orlando
metropolitan employment centers. Management reports numerous commercial
development projects either underway or nearing startup due to the county's
location along Interstate 4 and the opening of the new Florida Polytechnic
University campus in 2013. Additionally, Legoland, which opened in October 2011,
has reportedly outpaced visitor expectations and is expanding its attractions to
meet demand. Off-shoots of this successful theme park include the future
development of hotel, restaurant and retail development nearby which is expected
to increase sales tax revenues.

Unemployment has improved to 9.2% as of October 2012, down from 11.9% the prior
year, but still remains high and above state (9%) and national (8.4%) averages.
Per capita income is below average, equal to approximately 82% and 80% of state
and national averages, respectively.

Foreclosure activity was very high in 2009 and 2010 and had begun to decline,
but filings were up in 2012 compared to 2011 based on information provided by
the county. This activity could further dampen housing prices and negatively
affect assessed values, although housing prices have been trending slightly
higher the past two years. The district's assessed value declined 4.3% for
fiscal 2013 and is down 31% since fiscal 2009.

While Fitch notes that Florida school districts are less dependent on the tax
base than other local entities, tax base losses do lessen revenues available for
capital needs and debt service. The district's tax collection rate continues to
be between 96% and 97% and does not appear to be materially affected by
foreclosure activity.


Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'. The ratings above
were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has been
compensated for the provision of the ratings.

In addition to the sources of information identified in Fitch's Tax-Supported
Rating Criteria, this action was additionally informed by information from
Creditscope, University Financial Associates, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index,
IHS Global Insight, Zillow.com, and National Association of Realtors.

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
--'Tax-Supported Rating Criteria' (Aug. 14, 2012);
--'U.S. Local Government Tax-Supported Rating Criteria' (Aug. 14, 2012).

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
Tax-Supported Rating Criteria
U.S. Local Government Tax-Supported Rating Criteria
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