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Euro zone and Russia near debt compromise on Cyprus

BERLIN | Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:51am EST

BERLIN (Reuters) - Europe and Russia are getting closer to a deal on how to involve Moscow in bailing out indebted Cyprus after Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signaled willingness to help.

Medvedev was quoted as saying on Monday that Russia could provide support to Cyprus under certain conditions but the island itself and the European Union would have to take the biggest share in a potential bailout.

The help could come in the form of an extension to a 5-year 2.5 billion euro loan Moscow granted Nicosia in 2011.

Cyprus said earlier this month it had formally launched a request for a 5-year extension to repay that debt, a step that could take the immediate heat out of Nicosia's financial woes and that, according to a German government document, euro zone finance ministers support.

"We think the main burden to solve these problems should be taken on by Cyprus and the EU states," Medvedev told the German business daily Handelsblatt in an interview held on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

"But we are not refusing to help under certain conditions. The conditions must be agreed first. Before that, there can be no money from us," he added.

The Mediterranean island, waiting for a multi-billion euro bailout after heavy exposure to debt-crippled Greece, has had to contend with misgivings from lender states on how committed it is to fighting money laundering and why the island is a magnet for Russian money.

Cyprus offers the euro zone's lowest nominal corporate tax rate and has had close political ties with Russia for decades. Some politicians, especially in Germany, have accused Cyprus of being a hub for money laundering and a shadowy tax haven.

Last week, European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn told Reuters it would only be fair for Russia to share part of the burden over Cyprus.

"I would think that as there is significant economic and financial activity by Russia and especially by Russian citizens and businesses in Cyprus, it would be quite fair that Russia is making a contribution," Rehn said.

"We have had contacts with Russia but of course they take their own decisions in their own way," he added.

Medvedev said it was now important for the European Union to put clear demands to Cyprus.

"It would be better if nobody would lose anything. But most of all it is now necessary that the EU formulates its demands clearly on how the Cypriot economy should be cleaned up. Cyprus is more set than countries like Greece."

Cyprus, one of the smallest euro zone economies, applied for financial aid from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in June last year after its banks were hurt by an EU-sanctioned writedown of Greek debt held by private investors.

While European Central Bank board member Joerg Asmussen told Reuters last week Cyprus could derail the euro zone despite its small size, others still have doubt that a default in the country, with gross domestic product of just 0.2 percent of the euro zone's output, could unsettle the bloc as a whole.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is not yet convinced it can be seen as a systemic risk, which is a precondition for a bailout.

Preliminary estimates of a draft bailout deal put the bill at 10 billion euros for bank support. On that basis, its total bailout, including fiscal needs, could reach 17-17.5 billion euros, equivalent to the island's annual economic output.

(Additional reporting by Matthias Sobolewski and Reinhard Becker in Berlin and Paul Taylor in Davos, Switzerland; editing by Jeremy Gaunt)

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Comments (1)
dareconomics wrote:
The Eurozone’s crisis fighting efforts boil down to spending the minimum amount of money to keep members within the common currency, also known as kicking the can. In my last post on Cyprus, http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2013/01/19/big-trouble-in-little-cyprus/, I wrote that a bailout would begin to materialize, but it would take months to put through. The first step towards that bailout is within reach.

The Germans believe that Cyprus is a tax avoidance and money laundering haven and that saving Cyprus is saving the Russian oligarchs. They are probably right, but remember that every bailout so far has been about propping up the European banks who were neck deep in risky periphery debt. European oligarchs have much more sway in German politics than Russian ones.

Due to this facet of the political situation, it is necessary to get Russia to contribute to a Cypriot bailout before the Eurozone can proceed. The Russians have already done so with a five year €2.5bn loan extended in November of 2011, but never mind that. Germany wants more concessions, so Russia is offering to extend the duration of the loan another five years. This restructuring will reduce Cyprus’ immediate cash needs so that it is able to finance itself through ELA from the Bank of Cyprus while the Eurozone haggles over the terms of the bailout package.

Of course, this new bailout package will help Cyprus as much as the troika’s bailout package helped Greece. Cyprus’ GDP is about €18bn, and it currently has a 71% debt to GDP ratio. Adding a €17.5bn bailout package in the form of loans will give it a Grecian debt ratio of 171%. The banks will be saved as will their depositors, but the Cypriots will struggle under this debt for years. Cyprus should consider the Iceland model where banks are allowed to fail, but it will not.

This is a shame. Cyprus has been riven by ethnic tensions between its Greek and Turkish populations since independence with the Turkish military maintaining a quasi-state in the north part of the island. Lately, there has been talk of reconciliation and reunification, but I do not see the northern part of the island wishing to unify with the southern, Greek portion while it undergoes this economic duress.

Full post with chart here:

dareconomics.com

Jan 28, 2013 12:21pm EST  --  Report as abuse
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