EURO GOVT-Spanish debt rallies but outlook remains volatile

Fri Feb 8, 2013 11:43am EST

Related Topics

* Spanish short-term debt revived by domestic buyers
    * Italy elections, Spain scandal to keep investors on edge
    * Irish rally extends as banking debt deal wins favour


    By William James and Emelia Sithole-Matarise
    LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Spanish bond yields fell on Friday
as buyers re-emerged to take advantage of a recent selloff but
the respite was likely to prove temporary with political risks
in Spain and Italy set to keep investors on edge.
    Shorter-dated Spanish bonds felt the greatest force of the
buying with traders citing domestic investors as driving a 7.5
basis point fall on two-year bonds that left yields
at 2.75 percent. 
    "There may be some correction after the recent rewidening of
spreads and it seems to be coming from the domestic front and
maybe some follow-up buying after the strong auction yesterday,"
said Mathias van der Jeugt, a rate strategist at KBC.    
    Ten-year yields dipped 5 bps to 5.37 percent,
roughly in the middle of this week's wide 30 bp trading range
after a volatile week caused by allegations of corruption that
have put pressure on Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy.
    Though Rajoy has denied any wrongdoing in the scandal,
Spanish bonds investors were likely to remain sensitive and keep
bond trading choppy.
    "If you get a government that's having to do whatever it can
to regain popularity then focus on reforms and deficit cutting 
goes out the window, so that will remain a concern," said
Elisabeth Afseth, strategist at Investec in London.
    Spanish debt outperformed its Italian counterpart heading
into a week where bond sales from Rome will be a key focus as
the country's general election draws closer. The rising
popularity of former premier Silvio Berlusconi has put some
investors on alert, wary that reform commitments might slip.
    Italy will sell short-term bills, longer-term bonds and
floating rate notes next week, and while demand was not expected
to fall short at the auctions, the strength of bidding will be
closely watched as a gauge of investor confidence.
    "They'll probably get it away, we're not at the stage where
that's a problem, but I can't see anyone going in and bidding
aggressively ahead of the election," Afseth said.  
     
    GREEN IS GOOD
    Irish bonds enjoyed another strong day as investors
continued to warm to a deal reached on Thursday that eased the
burden of financing the country's banking bailout and boosted
Dublin's prospect of exiting its bailout on schedule.
 
    The yield on the Irish 2020 bond sank 15
basis points to 3.85 percent, extending the decline since the
banking deal to 25 basis points. Irish yields are now below
Italian equivalents in shorter maturities and at their lowest
levels since before the start of the financial crisis in 2007.
    "Obviously Ireland is trading through Italy and (the move)
can have further legs. Such a trade will even benefit from
Ireland being flat and Italy getting some issues with the
elections," Commerzbank strategist David Schnautz said.
    German debt ended the week with a low volume session in
which prices traded in a half-point range but closed barely
changed at 142.81. Early gains were wiped out late in the
afternoon, tracking a slide in U.S. debt prices which were
affected by a heavy week of new debt supply.
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