TEXT-Fitch affirms Cheboygan Area Public Library, Mich. GOs

Thu Feb 14, 2013 11:31am EST

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Feb 14 - Fitch Ratings affirms the following rating on Cheboygan Area Public
Library, MI (the library) securities:

--Approximately $2.3 million in general obligation unlimited tax (ULTGO) bonds,
series 2004, at 'AA-'.

The Rating Outlook is Stable.

SECURITY

The bonds are secured by the library's full faith and credit and its ad valorem
taxing authority, without limitation as to rate or amount.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

STRONG FINANCIAL POSITION: The library's reserves are notably and consistently
strong despite recent marginal draws, an important credit strength given the
limited revenue-raising capacity shared by all local governments in Michigan. .

SMALL, TOURISM ECONOMY: The service area is small and centered on tourism with
high off-season unemployment, low resident wealth levels, a large seasonal
population, and limited occupational opportunities.

MANAGEABLE LONG-TERM LIABILITIES: Debt service carrying costs are high but
mitigated by the library's single-purpose nature and limited operating risk. The
absence of debt plans will keep its overall debt ratios manageable. Pension and
other post-employment benefit (OPEB) costs do not represent budgetary pressure.

RATING SENSITIVITY:

Fitch expects the library to retain its high reserve position to counterbalance
concerns over the small service area and revenue constraints, credit factors
that Fitch believes limit the rating to its current level.

CREDIT PROFILE

The library's service area covers 286 square miles at the northernmost tip of
Michigan's lower peninsula, proximate to Mackinac Island, serving the city of
Cheboygan and seven surrounding townships (district population of 13,993) with a
considerably larger population during the summer months.

STRONG FINANCIAL POSITION DESPITE VARIABLE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

The library's reserves are a notable credit positive at 127% of general fund
expenditures in 2012 and have remained above 125% of spending for at least six
years. Healthy reserves will remain key to the library's rating; however, Fitch
notes that in absolute terms the library's fund balance is modest at $657,000.
Fitch views positively the district's adoption of a conservative fund balance
policy reserving 50% of prior years' spending; such prudent management will help
the library navigate the challenged revenue-raising environment typical of
Michigan localities. Options for library revenue enhancement are limited to
voter-approved millages.

Financial performance has been variable over the past six years, with a $22,000
draw in 2011, representing 4% of general fund spending. Voter approval of an
operating millage in 2010 helped the library break even in 2012. The district's
2013 budget includes a small use of fund balance ($20,000 or 3.8% of spending)
for operations due to staffing increases. The district reports being on budget
for the year, which Fitch believes is reasonable given the district's history of
generally realistic budgeting.

LIMITED SEASONAL ECONOMY

The library's service area is limited, focused on tourism and supporting service
interests. The local economy benefits from its location on the south side of the
Mackinac Bridge, which connects the Lower and Upper Peninsulas in Michigan.
Proximity to Mackinac Island adds to the tourist allure. Market value per capita
is a high $284,000, positively skewed by the sizable non-resident population,
and is down 21% from its peak in 2007.

The seasonal nature of the economy is evident in the monthly unemployment
trends, which show below-average rates May through October, and well
above-average rates for the remaining months of the year. Year-over-year
analysis shows little recessionary impact on summer unemployment rates; winter
rates have moderated from about 22% at the height of the downturn in winter
2010, versus a peak of 17% in winter 2012. Cheboygan Memorial Hospital, formerly
the area's largest employer, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in March
2012 and recently re-opened under new management as an outpatient and emergency
facility with a 60% reduction in staff (to 200). Management reports no
disruption in property tax payments related to the bankruptcy.

Per capita income for year-round residents is 62% of the state and 57% of the
U.S. (city of Cheboygan), reflecting the rural area, limited service-based
economy, high seasonal unemployment, and higher than average proportion of
retired residents. The individual poverty rate in the city is notably high at
approximately 250% of the state's rate.

MANAGEABLE LONG-TERM LIABILITIES

The district's carrying cost of debt service, pension, and OPEB is notably high
at approximately 37% of fiscal 2012 governmental (net of capital) fund spending.
The high annual debt service cost burden (33%) is typical for special purpose
districts given their limited operations. Fitch expects the average per capita
debt burden ($3,331) to moderate given the district's lack of capital needs and
rapid amortization of over 70% in 10 years. Debt to market value is below
average at 1.2%, reflecting the significant property investment of seasonal
residents.

The library provides a defined benefit cost-sharing pension and OPEB plan for
hires prior to 1995, the annual cost for which is minimal at approximately
$24,000 or 4.5% of governmental spending in 2013. Employees hired in 1995 and
after are members of a defined contribution plan and are not eligible for OPEB.

Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'. The ratings above
were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has been
compensated for the provision of the ratings.

In addition to the sources of information identified in Fitch's Tax-Supported
Rating Criteria, this action was additionally informed by information from
Creditscope, University Financial Associates, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index,
IHS Global Insight, National Association of Realtors.

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
--'Tax-Supported Rating Criteria' (Aug. 14, 2012);
--'U.S. Local Government Tax-Supported Rating Criteria' (Aug. 14, 2012).

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
Tax-Supported Rating Criteria
U.S. Local Government Tax-Supported Rating Criteria
FILED UNDER:
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