FOREX-Yen gains as Japan officials' rift muddles policy view

Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:44am EST

Related Topics

* Japan's Aso says not considering foreign bond purchases
    * German ZEW unexpectedly soars to highest since April 2010
    * Euro gains prove short-lived, Italy election worries weigh
    * Dollar/yen faces solid resistance around 94.50 yen

    By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
    NEW YORK, Feb 19 (Reuters) - The yen climbed on Tuesday
after two days of losses after Japanese Finance Minister Taro
Aso said he was not considering buying foreign bonds as part of
efforts to ease monetary policy, a day after Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe said this was an option.
    That highlighted the open disagreement between the two
Japanese officials which has somewhat muddled the outlook for
the country's monetary policy and created two-way risk for
dolla/yen trades. 
    Markets still expect Japan to ease policy aggressively -- a
negative for the yen -- but the approach is less clear-cut,
which could slow the currency's fall.
    In addition, although Japan was not singled out at this
weekend's Group of 20 meeting for monetary and fiscal measures
that have resulted in yen weakness, Choi Hee Nam, South Korea's
director-general at its finance ministry, said Japan's policies
were not endorsed by the group and did spark controversy,
according to a report from Bloomberg News.
    "Developments in the past few days highlight the fact that
there are internal rifts on the policy approach and there may be
external constraints on what sort of easing measures Japan's
partners will deem acceptable," said Shaun Osborne, chief
currency strategist at TD Securities in Toronto.
    He added that near-term downside risks loom large for the
dollar against the yen.
    In early New York trading, the dollar fell 0.5
percent to 93.50 yen, well below a peak of 94.22 yen hit on
Monday after Japan escaped direct criticism from its G20 peers
at the weekend. However, it remained above chart support at
93.38 yen, the 200-hour moving average.
    With the dollar having risen about 20 percent since
mid-November, investors have hesitated to re-test last week's
33-month high of 94.47 yen, when it failed to breach a reported
options barrier at 94.50.
    Some strategists said the yen's fall could also lose
momentum as investors become wary of betting on further yen
weakness until there is more clarity on who will become the next
Bank of Japan governor.
    Tokyo has delayed nominating a new governor for its central
bank by a week, fanning talk of friction between the prime
minister and the finance minister on the issue. 
  
    The euro was down 0.5 percent against the yen at 124.81 yen
.
    Against the dollar, the euro was last little changed at
$1.3349 after hitting session highs on an upbeat German
economic sentiment survey. The ZEW index rose to its highest
since April 2010, beating even the highest forecast in a Reuters
poll. 
    Investors, however, grew cautious ahead of the Italian
elections this weekend, selling the euro through the
Zew-inspired rally. The euro though remained though above a
three-week low of $1.3306 hit on Friday, with traders reporting
bids at $1.3310-15.
    "The euro has derived no obvious benefit from the better
German data," said Bob Lynch, chief currency strategist at HSBC
in New York. He cited several bearish technical indicators on
euro/dollar, such as the five-day moving average close to
crossing the 40-day moving average.
    All those indicators suggest more downside than upside risk
for the euro against the dollar, Lynch said, and he would look
to sell toward the $1.3400 area.  
    The euro has come under selling pressure in the wake of
recent data revealing a deeper-than-forecast euro zone recession
and on concerns that Italy's Feb. 24-25 election could fragment
parliament, potentially hampering the country's reform efforts.
    The dollar index, meanwhile, held firm near a six-week high
of 80.727 hit on Monday and was last at 80.615. It faces
resistance from its 200-day moving average at 80.940.
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