FOREX-Dollar stumbles after weak U.S. jobs data, yen falls

Fri Apr 5, 2013 5:27pm EDT

Related Topics

* Soft U.S. non-farm payrolls figure weighs on dollar
    * Yen selloff continues, pressured by BoJ stimulus
    * Dollar on track to rise toward 100-yen mark
    * Mexico's peso rallies to 19-month peak vs dollar

    By Daniel Bases and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
    NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - The dollar dropped to a
two-week low against the euro, as worse-than-expected U.S. jobs
data for March raised concerns that the pace of recovery in the
American labor market has slowed.
    Japan's yen also extended its downward slide, hitting its
worst levels against the dollar since June 2009 and a two-month
trough against the euro. As trading volumes dried up heading
into the weekend, the euro at one point was up more than 2
percent on the Japanese currency.
    Investors continued to dump the yen in the aftermath of the
Bank of Japan's massive stimulus announcement on Thursday, which
should keep its downward trend intact. 
    The yen fell 3.4 percent this week against the dollar, its
worst week since December 2009. Against the euro, the yen slid
4.95 percent, its worst weekly performance since November 2008.
    But the weak U.S. jobs number was the market's focus on
Friday. The employment report along with downbeat economic
indicators in the manufacturing and service sectors earlier this
week should ensure that the Federal Reserve's quantitative
easing policy will be in place for some time, analysts said.
    "It is likely the debate about QE tapering will be put on
the back burner for now as employment gains look to be losing
momentum," currency analysts at FOREX.com wrote on Friday.
    Under QE, the central bank floods the market with cash
through asset purchases, boosting the supply of the currency and
therefore, weakening it. While that may theoretically weaken the
dollar, some portfolio managers said this is not a reason to
abandon the greenback just yet.
    "This data interrupts the strong dollar trend against the
euro for example, but medium-term, I am not convinced that this
weakness in the dollar will continue," said Federico Garcia
Zamora, director of currency strategies and senior portfolio
manager at Standish Asset Management in Boston. Standish manages
$167 billion in assets.
    "We had expected some softness in the jobs data; after all,
recent reports had been printing weaker-than-expected numbers.
But this is a minor pullback in the U.S. economy and we're going
to see a slowdown in the next couple of quarters and then we
will see growth picking up again in the last quarter of the
year," Zamora added.
    U.S. Labor Department data showed that the economy added
just 88,000 non-farm jobs last month, well below the consensus
forecast for a gain of 200,000.
    In a separate survey, the unemployment rate inched lower to
7.6 percent from 7.7 percent the previous month, while January
and February readings were revised upward to show that 61,000
more jobs were added. 
    On Friday, the euro rose as high as $1.3039 - its
strongest level since March 25. In late New York trade, the euro
changed hands at $1.2998, up 0.49 percent on the day and up 1.4
percent this week - its best weekly showing since mid-January.
    "The 61,000 additional jobs (for January-February) were not
sufficient offsets," said Marc Chandler, global head of foreign
exchange strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.
"Investors have also become more immune to the divergence with
the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate ticked down ... as
almost 500,000 people left the labor market."
    Against the yen, the dollar traded up 1.29 percent at 97.57
yen, just off the near four-year high of 97.83 in thin
afternoon trade. This marked a sharp rebound from the 95.80 yen
session low hit just after the U.S. jobs report.
    Analysts said the main driver for the dollar's moves against
the yen is still the BoJ's monetary stimulus as the greenback
was on track to hit the psychological 100-yen threshold.
    "Investors' mindset in trading dollar/yen is to buy it on
dips," said Brian Daingerfield, currency strategist, at RBS
Securities in Stamford, Connecticut.
    "We know that dollar/yen will continue to strengthen given
what's going on in Japan and the U.S. payrolls report gave the
market the perfect opportunity to buy it back at a lower level,"
he added.
    Overall, the greenback was up 12.6 percent against the yen
so far this year.
    The euro settled around 126.85 yen, a gain of 1.8
percent on the day after having hit a peak of 127.29 yen, the
best showing since early February.
    Also on Friday, the Mexican peso rose to a 19-month high
against the dollar on market speculation of an upgrade to the
country's sovereign credit rating. The ratings agencies, as a
practice, do not comment on market rumors. 
    The peso  firmed almost 1 percent to 12.1931
per dollar, breaking past the key 12.20 level to hit its
strongest since August 2011.
    Investors are more optimistic on Mexico given the new
government's economic reform plans and close proximity to a
strengthening U.S. economy, notwithstanding Friday's dismal jobs
report.
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