FOREX-Dollar on track for weekly gain on debt deal optimism

Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:41pm EDT

Related Topics

* Dollar rises vs yen on prospect of U.S. debt deal
    * Obama and Republicans struggle to reopen gov't, raise debt
limit

    NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The dollar was on track for its
first weekly gain in five against a basket of currencies, as
optimism grew that the U.S. Congress will reach agreement on a
stop-gap deal to avert a devastating U.S. default.
    President Barack Obama and congressional Republican leaders
moved to end their fiscal impasse on Friday but struggled with
the details for a short-term reopening of the federal government
and an increase in the U.S. borrowing limit. 
 
    With no certainty that a deal will be struck to raise the
limit by the Oct. 17 deadline, analysts said, the dollar will
remain pressured while safe-haven currencies such as the yen
will be attractive. Worries about the U.S. budget and debt
crisis had driven the dollar index to an eight-month low last
Thursday.
    "Investors have happily noted the shift in negotiating
parlance by diving head first back into riskier asset pools,"
said Christopher Vecchio, currency analyst at DailyFX in New
York. "The Australian and New Zealand Dollars, which bended but
didn't break this week, are leaders alongside the euro." 
    The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against
a basket of six major currencies, was little changed at 80.383
on Friday but pace for a gain of 0.3 percent this week, the
first weekly rise since early September.
    Options investors are curbing bets that profit from a
stronger dollar, with one-week euro/dollar risk reversals
 showing options investors sought the smallest
protection against the euro's depreciation since January.
One-year risk reversals show demand for euro puts,
the right to sell the euro at a future date, at its smallest
since April.   
    The dollar rose 0.4 percent to 98.49 yen, having hit
a session peak of 98.57 yen, according to Reuters data, the
highest since Oct. 1. Support is seen at the 200-day moving
average of 96.87 yen.
    The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3550.
    The dollar rose 1.1 percent against the yen for the week,
its best week since August 23.
    Paul Bednarczyk, head of research at 4CAST In London, said
markets were hoping for a deal before the end of the weekend. 
    "If we get a deal that is more than just can-kicking, then
equities will go up and dollar/yen will go up with it. There is
a very reliable correlation at the moment and nobody is going to
fight it," he said, adding that the dollar could target 100 yen.
    High-yielding, growth-sensitive currencies rose. The New
Zealand dollar gained 0.6 percent to $0.8323. The
Australian dollar added 0.2 percent to $0.9467.
    The fiscal impasse has taken the spotlight off the Federal
Reserve for now. But expectations are growing the Fed will have
to evaluate the impact of the government shutdown, now in its
11th day, before it scales back its buying of $85 billion per
month of Treasuries and mortgage bonds.
    "A short-term deal would keep the level of uncertainty
relatively high and likely keep consumers' and business
sentiment pressured," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at
Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington D.C. 
    "The ongoing fiscal drag would, in turn, likely keep the
Federal Reserve from scaling back its monetary easing further
into 2014." 
    A survey showed Friday that U.S. consumer sentiment
deteriorated in October to its weakest in nine months as the
first federal government shutdown in 17 years undermined
Americans' outlook on the economy. The dollar
showed little reaction to the data, given the bigger concerns
surrounding negotiations in Washington. 
    "If it was not already, it will be near impossible for the
Fed to commence tapering before year-end if only a six-week debt
extension is agreed," said Tom Levinson, FX strategist at ING,
in a note to clients.
    He said the dollar index would struggle to sustain a rally
to 81.00, the level it reached before the U.S. central bank
surprised markets on Sept. 18 by opting not to start trimming
its bond buying.
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