Economists trim short-term U.S. growth forecasts: survey

NEW YORK Mon Nov 25, 2013 10:08am EST

A worker gathers items for delivery from the warehouse floor at Amazon's distribution center in Phoenix, Arizona November 22, 2013. REUTERS/Ralph D. Freso

A worker gathers items for delivery from the warehouse floor at Amazon's distribution center in Phoenix, Arizona November 22, 2013.

Credit: Reuters/Ralph D. Freso

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Economists trimmed their forecasts for U.S. economic growth in the final quarter of the year and the first three months of 2014 but predicted A slightly higher rate of job growth over the next four quarters.

Analysts see the economy growing at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in the current quarter, down from a previous estimate of 2.3 percent, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's quarterly survey of 42 forecasters.

Growth in the first quarter of 2014 was seen picking up to 2.5 percent, though that, too, was down from a prior estimate of 2.7 percent.

The economy is expected to grow at a rate of 1.7 percent for all of 2013 and 2.6 percent in 2014.

The pace of hiring was expected to increase slightly over the next year, with an average rate of monthly job growth seen around 187,000 for each of the next two quarters before rising to 202,100 by the final quarter of 2014.

The jobless rate was expected to be 7.2 percent at the end of the current quarter and 7 percent by the second quarter of 2014.

The most recent official unemployment rate released by the government edged up to 7.3 percent in October from 7.2 percent.

The Fed has promised to hold interest rates near zero until unemployment hits 6.5 percent, provided the outlook for inflation stays under 2.5 percent.

Inflation was expected to remain muted, with year-on-year headline consumer price inflation averaging 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 and 2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014. Those numbers were unchanged from prior estimates.

The year-on-year core reading of CPI, which removes food and energy, was also steady at 1.8 percent in 2013 and 2 percent in 2014.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, core CPI was forecast at 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter and 1.9 percent in the first three months of next year. Both were revised down slightly from the previous forecast.

(Reporting by Steven C. Johnson; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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Comments (1)
divinargant wrote:
And if their history of forecasting is any indication of just how accurate and unbiased they really are then they will in all probability be overestimating future growth four quarters. Gee, I wonder why? Now you take Wall Street analysts when it comes to earnings projections and the idea is to ratchet down and beat all expectations. Of course that’s a different kind of con job.

Nov 25, 2013 10:40am EST  --  Report as abuse
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