Rogers commodity index cuts 2014 US crude weighting; adds to natgas

Wed Nov 27, 2013 12:56pm EST

* 5 pct cut for US crude oil weighting; 1 pct drop for Brent
    * 2 pct hike each for natgas, gold and silver weightings

    Nov 27 (Reuters) - Rogers International Commodity Index
(RICI), managed by veteran investor Jim Rogers, will cut its
weighting toward crude oil next year and raise exposure to
natural gas, gold and silver, due to what Rogers termed
"consumption changes". 
    The shift in weightings of the RICI comes amid
projections for higher U.S. crude oil supplies in 2014, which
some analysts say could further weigh on weakening prices.
    U.S. natural gas production is also expected to rise next
year, although gas prices have been trending higher lately due
to cold weather in key consuming regions of the country.
    RICI's weighting for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude
, the benchmark grade for U.S. oil, will be cut by 5
percent next year to 16 percent, according to Beeland Interests,
Inc., the Rogers-controlled company that runs the index.
    For Brent crude, the European benchmark for oil,
RICI's weighting will drop by 1 percent to 13 percent.
    Natural gas and gold will both have a 5
percent weighting, after a 2 percent rise in each. The exposure
in silver will be doubled to 4 percent from 2 percent.
    Beeland said the changes will take place over January and
February and will be implemented in two phases. In an email to
Reuters, Rogers cited "consumption changes" as reason for the
shift in weightings. 
    RICI joins other leading commodity indexes in reducing
exposure to U.S. crude oil next year.
    The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index is cutting its
stakes in WTI, natural gas and wheat, while increasing its
exposure to copper, gold and Brent crude. 
    S&P GSCI is reducing its weighting in WTI, Chicago
wheat and some base and precious metals, while raising its
stakes for soybeans, corn, Brent crude and natural gas.
 
    The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said it
expects U.S. crude oil production to rise from an average of 6.5
million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012 to 7.5 million bbl/d in
2013 and 8.5 million bbl/d in 2014.
    In natural gas, the marketed production is expected to
increase from 69.2 billion cubic feet a day (Bcf/d) in 2012 to
70.3 Bcf/d in 2013 and to 71.0 Bcf/d in 2014, the EIA said.
    Schedule for RICI's weighting changes in 2014:
    * January:
    WTI Crude down from 21% to 18.5%
    Brent down from 14% to 13.5%
    Natural Gas up from 3% to 4%
    Gold up from 3% to 4%
    Silver up from 2% to 3%
    
    * February:
    WTI Crude down from 18.5% to 16%
    Brent down from 13.5% to 13%
    Natural Gas up from 4% to 5%
    Gold up from 4% to 5%
    Silver up from 3% to 4%
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