REFILE-UPDATE 1-Commod assets lost record $88 bln value through Nov -Barclays

Tue Dec 17, 2013 3:15pm EST

Dec 17 (Reuters) - Commodity assets lost $88 billion in value through
November, the largest decline for the first 11 months of the year on record,
from a combination of investor exits and from price drops that took place mostly
in gold, Barclays said on Tuesday.
    In terms of withdrawals alone, investors took out a net $36.3 billion in the
11 months of the year so far, setting another record over that time period, the
London-based investment bank said in a research note.
    A table on commodity asset values published by Barclays show assets under
management in the space falling from nearly $420 billion in 2012 to $332 billion
at the end of November.
    Barclays said it expected continued headwinds in commodities, with unclear
price trends forecast in most markets.
     "We view 2014 as likely to be another difficult year for commodity
investors," Barclays said. It added that any clear and sustainable trends in
prices "will likely be few and far between".
    Barclays said it expects base metals to outperform oil and precious metals
in early 2014, and it advocated a long, or bullish, position in nickel. It also
suggested investors sell gold on rallies, and go long U.S. crude oil 
while shorting, or placing bearish bets against, London's Brent crude.
    This year's broad drop in asset values was primarily caused by the flow of
investments out of precious metals led by gold, said Barclays.
    The spot price of gold is down 27 percent year-to-date, falling 5
percent in November alone. Barclays estimated total commodity outflows for last
month at $1.9 billion.
    For commodity-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs), the downtrend seen in
September persisted through to November and they tumbled below $130 billion in
assets to reach their lowest level since July 2010, Barlcays said.
    Despite the gloom, Barclays said there was some cheer in the commodity
statistics, with estimated combined flows into commodity index swaps,
index-linked notes and exchange-traded products totalling almost $2.5 billion in
the year to November.
    "There are signs that some sectors are starting to generate investor
interest again," Barclay's said.
    Barclays's breakdown of commodity assets under management, in billions of
dollars:

                        Nov-13  Oct-13  Q3-13  Q2-13   2012  2011     
Total                     332      340    345    331    418   386     
Indices                   124      125    126    121    133   137     
Exchange-traded products  124      130    135    127    204   174    
Medium-term notes        84.9     84.5   84.1   82.1   81.1   75.3
    
                        Nov-13  Oct-13  Q3-13  Q2-13   2012  2011     
Total                     332      340    345    331    418   386     
Precious metals           119      125    130    121    197   167     
Base metals                24       25     24     23     25    21    
Agriculture                59       60     60     60     64    63   
Energy                    130      130    132    126    132   135
Comments (0)
This discussion is now closed. We welcome comments on our articles for a limited period after their publication.