FOREX-Yen bounces as investors shun risk in quiet trade

Fri Jan 3, 2014 10:17am EST

Related Topics

* Yen moves away from lows as investors take profits
    * New York trade quiet amid major snowstorm
    * Dollar constrained despite positive data on Thursday
    * Euro extends slide after second-half rally

    By Julie Haviv
    NEW YORK, Jan 3 (Reuters) - The yen rose on Friday as
investors shunned risk and took profits after rallies in the
dollar and the euro, helping the Japanese currency bounce from
recent five-year lows.
    New York trade was extremely thin with governors of New York
and New Jersey declaring a state of emergency as a major
snowstorm hammered the northeastern United States.
 
    Asian stock markets were under water after a sudden reversal
in some very popular trades sparked a bout of global risk
aversion. Investors tend to flock to the yen in
times of market stress. 
    The dollar last traded 0.3 percent lower at 104.42 yen
, down more than a full yen from a five-year high of
105.44 yen set on Thursday.
    Traders said there had been some stop-loss dollar offers at
levels between 104.50 and 104.30 yen. Moves can also be larger
when volumes are thin, as they were with Japanese market players
out for New Year holidays until next week.
    The euro, the top-performing major currency of 2013, shed
0.7 percent to 142.24 yen, extending its losses in
the wake of its 1.2 percent slide the previous day. The single
currency retreated from a five-year peak of 145.67 yen set last
Friday.
    Asian shares outside Japan shed 1 percent as
a slower China services survey prompted some caution but
European markets made small gains and analysts said thin trade
was making currencies more volatile. 
    Growth in China's services sector fell to a four-month low
in December as business expectations dropped, a government
survey  showed, adding to evidence that the world's
second-largest economy lost steam into the close of 2013.
 
    "January is a bit of a messy month for foreign exchange,"
said Simon Smith, head of research at FxPro. "Volumes are still
thin ... Things are very much driven by flows.
    "I don't think the yen is a one-way bet in 2014. The easy
wins have been had. Always the most run-over people in the
markets are yen bears."
    Smith expects dollar/yen to end the year at 109 yen per
dollar.
    Betting on the dollar against the yen has been a big trade
for hedge funds and other investors over the past year, who see
the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy and potential
for more stimulus this year as one of the clearer themes in
tricky currency markets.
    Data on currency futures positions on the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange shows that currency speculators had increased their net
short position in the yen to 143,822 contracts in the week ended
Dec. 24, the largest since July 2007 and up from 62,395
contracts in late October.  
    The dollar index was up 0.1 percent at 80.718, having
hit a two-week high on Thursday as a slew of generally positive
U.S. economic data reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve
will continue to move away from its bond purchases.
 
    Looking ahead, next week will include the release of the
minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting and key
labor market data.
    The Fed's meeting minutes will be closely watched on
Wednesday for signs over how far the Fed may further reduce its
bond-buying program. Last month the central bank said it would
cut the mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries purchases by
$10 billion to $75 billion a month.
    The euro, meanwhile, hit a four-week low against the dollar
of $1.3609 and was last at $1.3614, down 0.4 percent.
    The single currency - whose second-half rally was driven by
factors such as euro zone banks repatriating funds to shore up
their capital bases and repaying cheap loans to the European
Central Bank - has retreated from a two-year high of $1.3894
touched last Friday.
    Marshall Gittler, head of global FX strategy at IronFX
Global, said 2014 had begun with last year's trends reversing.
    "Looking at the G10 currencies, most of the movement was
mean reversion: the currencies that gained in December lost, and
those that lost, notably the yen, gained," he said.
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