Fitch Solutions: Alstom CDS Spikes on Revised Forecasts

Tue Jan 28, 2014 10:46am EST

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(The following statement was released by the rating agency) NEW YORK, January 28 (Fitch) CDS market sentiment towards French engineering company Alstom has worsened in the last week after the company cut its profit forecast due to lacklustre demand for power equipment, according to the latest case study from Fitch Solutions. “Credit default swaps on Alstom widened out 35% last week, notably underperforming our European Industrials CDS Index, which moved 6% wider,� said Diana Allmendinger, Director, Fitch Solutions. CDS market sentiment for Alstom may have been further impacted by recent news reports of an investigation into its Brazilian operations, alleging that Alstom paid bribes to gain public contracts in the late 1990’s and early 2000s. After pricing consistently in line with ‘BBB’ spread levels, CDS referencing Alstom’s debt are now testing below investment grade levels. CDS liquidity for Alstom increased slightly last week, moving up three rankings to trade in the 23rd global percentile. Increased CDS liquidity typically signals increased market uncertainty over future CDS pricing for an issuer. Meanwhile, Fitch Solutions’ five-year probability of default for Alstom grew 112% last week from 5.05% to 10.7% as equity markets echoed the negative sentiment. Fitch Solutions case studies build on data from its CDS Pricing Service and proprietary quantitative models, including CDS Implied Ratings. These credit risk indicators are designed to provide real-time, market-based views of creditworthiness. As such, they can and often do reflect more short-term market views on factors such as currencies, seasonal market effects and short-term technical influences. This is in contrast to Fitch Ratings' Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs), which are based on forward-looking fundamental credit analysis over an extended period of time. Additional information about Fitch Solutions' products is available at www.fitchsolutions.com Contact: Diana Allmendinger Director +1-212-908-0848 Fitch Solutions 33 Whitehall Street New York, NY 10004 Media Relations: Peter Fitzpatrick, London, Tel: +44 20 3530 1103, Email: peter.fitzpatrick@fitchratings.com; Sandro Scenga, New York, Tel: +1 212-908-0278, Email: sandro.scenga@fitchratings.com. Fitch Solutions, a division of the Fitch Group, focuses on the development of fixed-income products and services, bringing to market a wide range of data, analytical tools and related services. The division is also the distribution channel for Fitch Ratings content. Fitch Ratings and Fitch Solutions are part of the Fitch Group, a jointly-owned subsidiary of Fimalac, S.A. and Hearst Corporation. For additional information, please visit 'www.fitchsolutions.com'; 'www.fitchratings.com'; 'www.fimalac.com' and 'www.hearst.com'.

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