TREASURIES-Prices rise after weak housing data, before Fed minutes

Tue Feb 18, 2014 2:49pm EST

Related Topics

* Prices rise after housing data disappoints
    * Forward guidance in focus for Fed meeting minutes
    * Fed to buy $1 bln-$1.25 bln bonds due 2036-2044

    By Karen Brettell
    NEW YORK, Feb 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries prices gained
on Tuesday after U.S. homebuilder confidence posted its largest
one-month drop ever in February, heightening recent concerns
over the slowing economy, and after the market last week
absorbed $70 billion in new supply.
    The National Association of Home Builders said on Tuesday
its Housing Market Index plunged by 10 points to 46 in February
, with a majority of builders seeing market
conditions as poor.
    The data raised doubts that recent weakness may extend
beyond bad weather, after many analysts and some Fed speakers
said that unseasonably cold weather in the U.S. is distorting
data and that economic momentum is likely to accelerate again in
the coming months. 
    The spate of weak data in recent weeks is expected to limit
the importance of the Federal Reserve's minutes from its January
policy meeting due to be released on Wednesday. Fed members are
expected to show they are committed to continuing the reduction
in the central bank's bond purchase program.
    "The backdrop has changed a lot since that meeting, we've
got another softish payroll report and we've gotten some other
weakish data. I think people are going to have to take what the
Fed said and then adjust to what you assume the Fed would change
its stance to, given the data," said Michael Cloherty, head of
U.S. rates strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in New York.
    Employers added 113,000 jobs in January, well below
economists expectations of 185,000 jobs, while December's jobs
gains also came in well below projections.
    Benchmark 10-year notes were last up 12/32 in
price to yield 2.708 percent, down from 2.745 percent late on
Friday. Thirty-year bonds rose 12/32 in price to
yield 3.676 percent, down from 3.70 percent.
    Bonds also rallied as bond supply eased, after the Treasury
last week sold new three-, 10- and 30-year debt as part of its
regularly scheduled bond auctions.
    Investors will also focus on discussion of forward guidance
in the Fed's meeting minutes, with unemployment dropping at a
faster rate than expected to a five-year low of 6.6 percent in
January. 
    The Fed previously said that it would not raise interest
rates until joblessness fell to at least 6.5 percent, a pledge
that policymakers thought would hold until at least mid-2015.
    "They seem to be downplaying the 6.5 percent unemployment
threshold and profess to have taken more qualitative threshold
of employment. Any discussion about how they may retool their
forward guidance will be most interesting, to see whether most
or some agree these changes will be made,"  said William
O'Donnell, an interest rate strategist at RBS Securities in
Stamford, Connecticut.
    The Fed bought $4.28 billion of Treasuries due in 2018 and
2019 on Tuesday as part of its ongoing purchase program. It will
buy between $1 billion and $1.25 billion in bonds due 2036 to
2044 on Wednesday.
    Investors will also watch to see if producer price pressures
are increasing with the Producer Price Index (PPI) release early
on Wednesday.
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