Fitch Rates China Resources Land's USD Notes 'BBB+(EXP)'

Thu May 8, 2014 1:27am EDT

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(The following statement was released by the rating agency) HONG KONG/SINGAPORE, May 08 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings has assigned China Resources Land Ltd's (CR Land; BBB+/Stable) proposed US dollar senior unsecured notes an expected 'BBB+(EXP)' rating. The notes will be issued under its USD2bn medium-term note programme and will be consolidated with the USD450m 4.375% notes due 2019 issued on 27 February 2014 to form a single series. The notes are rated at the same level as CR Land's senior unsecured rating because they constitute direct, unsubordinated and senior unsecured obligations of the company. The final rating on the US dollar notes is contingent on the receipt of final documents conforming to information already received. CR Land's ratings are supported by its business model of maximising operating cash flow from its development properties to support the expansion of its investment property portfolio. CR Land enters major Tier-2 cities in China selectively, in line with its model of operating investment properties in prime locations nationwide. CR Land's strategy fits into its parent China Resources (Holdings) Company Limited's (CRH) aim to be an influential conglomerate that taps China's growing affluence. KEY RATING DRIVERS Stable Cash from Development: Fitch expects CR Land to generate positive cash flow from operations (CFO) as the company shifts its development property strategy to focus on stability and profitability instead of high growth. CR Land generated HKD16.2bn in CFO in 2013, continuing the positive trend set in 2012 and reversing from 2011's negative CFO. CR Land's contracted sales had a 44% compounded annual growth rate for 2010 to 2013, but the company aims to move towards maximising cash generation with projects in higher-tier cities or in city centres that enjoy both strong demand and firm pricing. This is reflected in the higher land cost of CNY3,914 per square metre (sqm) for new land acquired since beginning of 2013 until end of February 2014, compared with CNY2,283 per sqm for land acquired between 2010 and 2012. High-Yielding Investment Properties: CR Land's investment properties are in prime locations in China's Tier 1 and wealthier Tier 2 cities. CR Land maintains an 80/20 split between retail and office by rental income. The strength of this portfolio is seen in the net rental yield of 5.5% that it fetched in 2013, higher than the average of 3.5% among large Hong Kong and Chinese property investment companies. CR Land's strong reputation in investment properties helps to support sales of its development properties that are linked to its investment property projects. Parental Assistance: CR Land's business profile is strengthened by the operational benefits it enjoys as a core subsidiary of CRH. CRH supports CR Land in preparing prime land and large parcel lands for eventual injection into CR Land for development. These additional land parcels augment CR Land's own existing land bank. CR Land has an edge in securing prime land in new cities given state-owned CRH's government linkage as well as its proven track record in developing city centre commercial property projects. CR Land also enjoys lower funding costs from borrowings with affiliated companies. Financial Headroom Supports Expansion: Fitch has focused on investment property credit metrics in its analysis as CR Land's development property business is moving into a stable state. The agency allocates all cash and debt supporting 30% of properties under development (net of presales proceeds) to the development business, in-line with the trends for large Chinese homebuilders. Residual debt is then allocated to the investment business. With this adjustment, the key measure used to assess CR Land's development business is the churn rate as measured by contracted sales/ gross debt of the development business. This ratio has been improving, rising to 1.4x in 2013 from 1.2x in 2012 and 1.0x in 2011. For its investment property business segment, leverage, as measured by net debt/recurring EBITDA, stood at 1.0x at end-2013 and EBIT net interest cover (NIC) was 3.8x after adjusting for a development business churn rate of 1.8x. These ratios are comparable to similarly or higher rated Hong Kong property investment companies. CR Land is making heavy investments that will more than double its investment property assets over the next three years. As a result, CR Land's credit metrics are likely to weaken, although they would still remain healthy with EBIT NIC for investment property trending towards 3.0x and leverage heading towards 7.0x. Rapid Expansion Constrains Ratings: CR Land's high capex is partly debt funded and the resulting higher leverage is a rating concern. Fitch expects CR Land to open an average of seven new investment property projects or an equivalent GFA of almost 900,000 sqm per year between 2014 and 2016. This compares with its existing GFA of 2.3m sqm as of end 2013. The agency projects that a constant increase of more than 20% in newly added GFA will create pressure on CR Land's credit metrics. RATING SENSITIVITIES Positive: Positive rating action is unlikely in the next 12 to 18 months but stabilisation of the investment property operation at a substantially larger scale may lead to positive rating action. Negative: Future developments that may individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action include: - investment property debt/recurring EBITDA sustained above 7.0x; - investment property EBIT NIC sustained below 2.5x; - contracted sales/development properties gross debt sustained below 1.8x; - sustained negative CFO Contact: Primary Analyst Su Aik Lim Director +65 6796 7233 Fitch Ratings Singapore Pte Ltd 6 Temasek Boulevard #35-05 Suntec Tower Four Singapore 038986 Secondary Analyst Andy Chang Associate Director +852 2263 9914 Committee Chairperson Kalai Pillay Senior Director +65 6796 7221 Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234, Email: leslie.tan@fitchratings.com; Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com Applicable criteria, "Corporate Rating Methodology: Including Short-Term Ratings and Parent and Subsidiary Linkage", dated 5 August 2013, are available at www.fitchratings.com. Related Research: Rating Chinese Homebuilders (October 2012) Rating EMEA REITs and Property Investment Companies (August 2012) Applicable Criteria and Related Research: Corporate Rating Methodology: Including Short-Term Ratings and Parent and Subsidiary Linkage here Rating Chinese Homebuilders here Rating EMEA REITs and Property Investment Companies here Additional Disclosure Solicitation Status here ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: here. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE.

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