Ukraine, Gaza violence pins German Bund yields near record lows

Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:44am EDT

(Updates prices, adds fresh analyst comments)

By Marius Zaharia

LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - German Bund yields fell to near-record lows on Friday as investors bought assets perceived as safe after the shooting down of a Malaysian airliner over eastern Ukraine, which aggravated tensions between Russia and the West.

Israel's stepping-up on Friday of its ground offensive in Gaza also fed a rise in risk aversion among investors.

German 10-year Bund yields fell 1 basis point (bps) to 1.15 percent, having tumbled as low as 1.137 percent overnight. They were within a whisker of their record low of 1.126 percent, touched in July 2012 at the height of the euro zone debt crisis.

"These are tragic events but we've seen in the past that geopolitical factors can drive markets one day but they don't have a lasting effect," KBC strategist Mathias van der Jeugt said.

The limited moves were a sign that investors were waiting to see what happens next before deciding whether to buy more safe haven assets, he said.

Bund futures rose 16 ticks to 148.36, having hit an all-time high of 148.48 overnight.

World leaders demanded an international investigation into the plane crash, which killed all 298 people on board, with the United States demanding a ceasefire between Kiev and pro-Russian separatists to allow the inquiry to take place.

The disaster might intensify international pressure to resolve the crisis in Ukraine, which has killed hundreds since public protests toppled the Moscow-backed president in Kiev in February and Russia annexed the Crimea a month later.

Western leaders have already tightened economic sanctions on Moscow for what they say is its failure to rein in the violence.

Some analysts said persistently low euro zone inflation and expectations that central banks will ease their monetary policies further if there is any risk to global growth were keeping bond yields subdued.

"The 1 percent (yield) level is a big target for the 10-year part of the German curve. We could well get there because there's big momentum given where inflation currently is in the euro zone," said Padhraic Garvey, head of investment grade debt strategy at ING.

Data on Thursday confirmed consumer prices in the 18-nation euro bloc rose 0.1 percent on the month in June for a 0.5 percent annual rise, the same annual inflation rate as in May and a low level the ECB calls the "danger zone".

RELENTLESS YIELD HUNT

Yields on lower-rated euro zone bonds were steady to a touch down, reversing most of their earlier rise - more evidence of how relentless the hunt for yield is in an environment of record low ECB interest rates.

Portuguese 10-year yields were last 2 bps lower at 3.70 percent, having traded as high as 3.79 percent. Spanish yields were down 2 bps at 2.62 percent, off the day's highs of 3.00 percent.

Earlier this week, a rise in Portuguese yields caused by worries over the financial health of firms of the Espirito Santo banking family was met with renewed demand from investors hungry for high-yielding assets.

"We remain positive on the periphery," London and Capital head of fixed income Sanjay Joshi said.

He said the latest events in Ukraine and Gaza have not prompted him to shift asset allocations, despite the fact that they could increase the risk of further sanctions on Russia, with potential implications for global growth.

"Whatever the ECB does to support the economy will be far more favourable to peripheral markets than core markets." (; editing by Mark Heinrich)

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