In fragile times, Karzai is best bet for U.S.

By Golnar Motevalli - Analysis

KABUL (Reuters) - With violence escalating ahead of Afghanistan's presidential election run-off, incumbent Hamid Karzai is probably the best hope both Afghans and the United States have of keeping the country stable in fragile times.

U.S. President Barack Obama tried to distance himself from Karzai from the start of his administration -- a policy the White House has to rethink as political and military instability in Afghanistan add pressure to already-flagging U.S. support for a costly and deadly war which is in its eighth year.

"There is a reticence with Karzai certainly, but there are few choices on the table," a Western diplomat said.

Despite a reputation badly damaged by widespread fraud from the first round of the election, which triggered the run-off, and his ineffectiveness at tackling corruption, Karzai is still seen as a unifying figure.

As a Pashtun -- Afghanistan's largest ethnic group -- he has support from the crucial southern and eastern tribal areas, and having the Pashtun vote, diplomats acknowledge, is vital for an Afghan leader's credibility.

"Karzai presents the most viable way forward in terms of reconciling with those who continue to fight. He is by far the most viable candidate," the diplomat added.

LOSING KARZAI

The U.S. has much to lose from a Karzai defeat and while ensuring the second-round is as clean as possible is vital important for Washington, it does not want to give Afghans the impression that it wants to pull the strings in Kabul.

A victory for Karzai's rival Abdullah Abdullah, who despite being half Pashtun, has support mainly from Tajiks because of his closeness to the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance General Ahmad Shah Masood, could spell disaster for the war.

"The most powerful warlords still feel Karzai is the man to support in terms of negotiations with the Taliban, I think Abdullah is even less likely to conduct negotiations and less palatable for the Taliban," Kamran Bokhari of U.S.-based intelligence company Stratfor said.

Furthermore, the election comes at a time of rising violence, with Wednesday's attack on the U.N. exposing the vulnerabilities of Kabul to Taliban militants.

A change of leadership for an impoverished, politically fragile and vulnerable country like Afghanistan will hardly be helpful at a time when both Kabul and Washington must focus on fighting the insurgency.

MUST REFORM

If Karzai does win the run-off, he must make changes and undertake reforms, something Washington insists on in order to build a "viable partner" in Afghanistan, one which can convince U.S. lawmakers that sending more troops is worthwhile.

Privately U.S. officials have made clear if Karzai emerges victorious there will be a strong emphasis on getting him to tackle corruption and taking a firmer line with ministers who have not performed.