Carmakers count down to green car targets

By Soyoung Kim and Helen Massy-Beresford

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - From major automakers to niche manufacturers, the race is on to get green cars on the road in the coming years, but one question lingers: after many false starts, are drivers finally ready for them?

Emerging from a savage economic downturn and under increasing regulatory pressure to cut emissions, carmakers rushed to show off a plethora of green shoots at the Frankfurt Motor Show. While manufacturers' estimates of the size of the market for the cars fluctuated, the need for government support in the early days was a recurring refrain.

France's Renault (RENA.PA) which unveiled four electric vehicle concepts previewing a new zero-emission product range, at the Frankfurt Auto Show, forecast ten percent of vehicles would be electric globally by 2020.

"We think the potential is beyond but it's going to depend not so much on the technology but on how governments, mayors, presidents and governors are willing to push this technology," Renault Chief Executive Carlos Ghosn, who is also head of Nissan (7201.T) said.

He said carmakers had little choice but to make the zero emissions shift, given the high probability that oil prices would go up, and emissions regulations would become tougher.

But the history of the industry's attempts to go green suggests that affordability is king, after all.

Hybrids, led by Toyota Motor Corp's (7203.T) top-selling Prius car, made up less than 2 percent of global sales last year, largely due to the high cost of batteries that leads to a price premium of nearly $5,000 over conventional vehicles.

Electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids are designed to go on battery power alone and are much more expensive than traditional hybrids, which twin battery power and internal combustion engines.

California start-up Tesla Motors' flagship Roadster sports car goes 240 miles on a single battery charge from a conventional power outlet but it sells for a base price of $109,000.

The company is due to start production of its $49,000 "Model S" family sedan in late 2011 or 2012.

Tesla's third generation car -- which will benefit from greater volumes and technological refinements -- could be priced below $30,000, chief executive Elon Musk told Reuters.

The company intends to launch this new model in around five years' time. "It's intended to be a very mainstream car," Musk said.

GM's heavily-touted Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid, which is designed to go 40 miles on a single charge, is expected to be marketed at above $40,000.

"At the end of the day, the question for us is what is the cost of the battery to the consumer," Renault and Nissan (7201.T) chief Ghosn said.

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