China a tougher sell for West on trouble-spots

By Chris Buckley - Analysis

BEIJING (Reuters) - President Barack Obama will be seeking China's backing over North Korea and Iran when he visits this month, but Beijing appears increasingly assertive about what Western pressure it accepts or rejects.

Obama's summit in China in mid-November is sure to cover trouble-spots where Washington hopes Beijing will throw more of its growing political and economic weight behind efforts to defuse disputed nuclear programs or diplomatic standoffs.

China has bowed to such demands before, reluctantly backing limited U.N. sanctions against Pyongyang and Tehran, while resisting tougher steps it saw as unwarranted or a threat to bilateral ties.

Such diplomatic haggling, with China accepting some Western demands while protecting its bilateral ties with targeted states, will not change. But recent signs suggest China may now be more willing to stand its ground.

China's continued economic growth and rise in diplomatic stature during the global financial crisis, and uncertainty over policy in Washington, had emboldened Beijing, said Andrew Small, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels, who has studied China's ties with the "rogue states."

"Several years ago, China's position was much more externally driven. Foreign pressure and U.S. lobbying was much more important," Small said of those ties.

"The U.S. is still a big factor, but they're finding they can be more assertive without putting relations with the U.S. in jeopardy."

Obama was likely to find bargaining for China's support over nuclear programs in North Korea and Iran more drawn out, said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international security at Renmin University in Beijing.

"China will become more self-confident about handling pressure from the U.S.," said Shi. "It will still cooperate, but there's less a sense that concessions on these issues define the bilateral relationship."

SHORING UP TIES

Beijing charted more of its own course most clearly with its communist neighbor, North Korea.

Last month, Premier Wen Jiabao courted its secretive top leader, Kim Jong-il, with a visit and President Hu Jintao hosted one of Kim's confidantes and invited Kim to visit.

China remains worried about North Korea's atomic weapons and wants to revive nuclear disarmament talks, said John Park, an expert on ties between the two countries at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington D.C.

But recently China has focused more on healing bruised ties with the North, driven by a belief that Pyongyang appears set on keeping its small nuclear arsenal for a long time, and that U.S. policy remains uncertain.

"I think the Chinese did an assessment and realized that the U.S. approach is ineffective, so they had to recalibrate policy toward North Korea," Park said.