Obama, Hu climate talk could spur Copenhagen

By Russell Blinch and Christopher Buckley - Analysis

WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) - When President Barack Obama sits down with his Chinese counterpart next week to talk climate change, it is highly unlikely they will craft a definitive plan to tackle global warming.

But the summit between the world's two biggest spewers of carbon dioxide will probably set the tone for next month's U.N. climate talks in Copenhagen.

Any progress in bridging the North-South climate divide would help lift the shroud of pessimism enveloping Copenhagen and Obama told Reuters this week he was optimistic of progress.

Conversely, a failure to advance, or any sign the big two could conspire to effectively let each other off the hook in Denmark, would probably condemn the talks to failure.

"Everyone is very pessimistic about Copenhagen, so there's a need for a positive signal from China and the United States," said Zhang Haibin, a professor of environmental diplomacy at Peking University.

"A joint statement that both countries are willing to cooperate and will not abandon this process would help lift hopes for Copenhagen. Without it, Copenhagen looks even bleaker, and the subsequent negotiations would also be damaged."

TOP EMITTERS

The United States has emitted more carbon into the atmosphere than any country on earth but China has since taken up the mantle as top producer of the gases blamed for warming the Earth's atmosphere. Together, they account for 40 percent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions.

So there can be little progress without cooperation between the two countries at the December 7-18 meeting in Copenhagen that is designed to succeed the Kyoto climate protocol.

"You are not only talking about the two greatest emitters but the two emitters that are iconic of the whole divide between developed and developing countries," said Julian L. Wong, Senior Policy Analyst at the Center for American Progress in Washington.

Wong thinks the international climate talks are far too complicated for Obama and President Hu Jintao to hammer out a definitive agreement on climate change when they meet next week.

But the two sides are expected to make announcements showing how they are engaging on renewable energy projects and research into things like electric cars and capturing carbon at power plants for storage underground. The two leaders will pledge greater cooperation on climate but specifics of any bilateral plan might be sparse.

"There will also be discussion of how to achieve some sort of agreement in Copenhagen -- something to boost global confidence -- but no major breakthroughs," said Wang Ke, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing

OBAMA'S OPTIMISM

Obama told Reuters in an interview prior to the trip that it was key the two countries reach a framework agreement other nations could buy into.