How much is too much government debt?

By Emily Kaiser - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - When it comes to borrowing trillions of dollars, it helps to have a golden reputation, a steady income stream, and plenty of rich, trusting friends.

As the world's wealthiest nations pile on debt at a pace that in less developed countries would alarm investors they appear to have ample supplies of all three -- for now.

That helps explain why a $1.4 trillion U.S. budget deficit announced last week drew gasps from politicians but didn't rattle investors who remain willing to loan money to the U.S. government at low interest rates.

It also explains why Japan and Italy can carry debt that exceeds their annual output, while emerging market economies such as Argentina in the past crumbled under such burdens.

Across all the Group of Seven rich nations, debt as a percentage of gross domestic product will rise in 2009, and probably stay elevated at least through 2012, according to International Monetary Fund data.

Some of that is a consequence of the global recession. Government spending soared to bail out banks and resuscitate economies, while tax revenues fell. Governments are trying to strike a delicate balance between doing enough to end the crisis without digging an inescapable debt hole.

"It is the central economic choice of our time," U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told Reuters on Tuesday.

Geithner, speaking at the Reuters Washington Summit, said it was imperative to do whatever it takes to restore economic growth and stop a recession from becoming a depression.

"For that to work over time, people need to understand and be confident that you will have the will and the ability to get back to living within your means when you have growth established," he said.

Confidence comes from decades of fiscal responsibility, but it can vanish almost overnight. While financial markets show little sign of losing faith in the United States right now, concerns about inflation are on the rise.

That suggests some degree of discomfort about whether Geithner, President Barack Obama, and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke can safely navigate the economic and political obstacles to corralling rising deficits in the coming years.

"As long as there is confidence, things can be just rolling along," said Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University economist and former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund. "If confidence evaporates, for whatever reason, you're dead meat."

WHAT KILLS CONFIDENCE?

If the rich world mismanages its debt position, the consequences will be severe and widespread. For the United States, the early signs of trouble would probably come in the form of a sharp decline of the U.S. dollar, a steep rise in inflation, and a spike in Treasury debt yields.

Investors appear willing to give the United States and other major economies the benefit of the doubt as long as the global economy remains weak and unemployment elevated.