Georgia crisis sharpens European divisions

By Paul Taylor - Analysis

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The Georgia crisis has sharpened divisions in Europe about how to deal with Russia and splits within NATO over the wisdom of granting membership to Russian neighbours Georgia and Ukraine.

Splits within the European Union over who is to blame for Russia's conflict with Georgia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia make it virtually impossible to envisage the 27-nation bloc taking steps to punish Russia, analysts said.

In NATO too, the crisis has not fundamentally changed any minds either about how to deal with Russia or whether Georgia and Ukraine should be admitted to the alliance.

"It's going to make it more difficult for the EU to have a Russia policy. The war if anything has divided the European Union's member states," said Tomas Valasek, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, a British thinktank.

A senior member of the European Commission said the crisis had dashed hopes of a fresh start between Europe and new Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who took over in May from Vladimir Putin, now prime minister.

"This has ended Medvedev's honeymoon with the West. It's clear that Putin, not Medvedev, is in charge. We had hoped for a new start. Now we have a new start, but of a different kind," he said.

"It is clear that the Russian military action is bound to have consequences for EU-Russia relations."

He said EU foreign ministers would discuss that in more depth at their informal retreat in Avignon, France, on Sept 5-6. Among the issues that may be discussed are whether to continue with visa liberalisation talks with Russia.

Foreign Secretary David Miliband said that meeting would decide "whether or not and how" the EU continued negotiations for a new partnership agreement with Moscow spanning areas such as trade, human rights and energy policy.

But Valasek said it would be "very difficult" for the EU to agree on any kind of sanction against Russia.

While some EU member states accused Russia of deliberately provoking the war, others believed Russia and Georgia shared the blame and others thought Georgia brought Russia's intervention on itself, he said.

STRONGER LINE

The United States has taken a stronger line towards Russia over the Georgia crisis than Europe has, but Valasek said there was unlikely to be a transatlantic consensus on Russia until a new U.S. administration is settled in next year.

President George W. Bush, insisting Georgia's sovereignty be respected, ordered the Pentagon on Wednesday to deliver aid.

U.S. presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama have both warned Russia of severe, long-term consequences from its conflict with Georgia.