Georgia rebel confidence rises after fighting

By Conor Sweeney - Analysis

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Georgia's efforts to bring the breakaway region of South Ossetia to heel have backfired so drastically that it may have lost control of both it and rebel-held Abkhazia for good.

Western diplomats and analysts said Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has little hope of reasserting his authority in the two regions after his failed invasion of South Ossetia.

A ceasefire agreement to end nearly a week of fighting between Georgian and Russian troops has given a new sense of confidence to the separatists in Abkhazia, and in mountainous South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which hugs the Black Sea.

Sergei Shamba, self-styled foreign minister of Abkhazia, told Reuters that Georgia should now accept it is a separate country.

"We have held talks with Georgia for 15 years and now we will only talk with them after recognition of our independence," Shamba said.

"There have been several drafts and they rejected them all. It's clear to me that it's pointless talking to them."

Self-styled South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity made similar independence demands on Wednesday, Russian media reported.

Georgian troops struck at pro-Russian South Ossetia last Thursday to retake it from separatists but the action provoked a massive retaliation from Moscow, whose troops drove the Georgian forces back.

At the same time, fighters in Abkhazia pushed back Georgian forces from their last stronghold there.

The result is a new power balance in the region.

"Militarily, Russia has achieved its strategic goal. It has demonstrated its ability to strike," wrote stratfor.com in an analysis.

"Russia ejected Georgia completely from Abkhazia and South Ossetia and has largely destroyed Georgia's war-fighting capability.

"And with talk of 'partial demobilization' as a condition for peace, Georgia could be hobbled for quite some time."

Moscow may take different approaches to the two regions, said the editor of Russia in Global Affairs, Fyodor Lukyanov.

Neither should be directly compared with Kosovo, which unilaterally declared independence from Serbia this year with the backing of many Western countries.