China wrestles climate quandary: growth versus CO2

But Beijing also says it must not be distracted from growing its economy and, like other developing countries, should not accept a ceiling on greenhouse gas output, which even optimistic Chinese experts expect to keep rising until around 2030.

By then, China's annual emissions of carbon dioxide could reach 8 to 10 billion tons a year, unless stringent action is taken, said He Jiankun, a professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing who advises the Chinese government on emissions policy.

In 2007, China's CO2 emissions from fossil fuels amounted to about 6.6 billion metric tons, according to U.S. estimates.

China also wants rich nations to cut emissions by at least 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 -- far deeper than the cuts now on offer -- and to give up to one percent of their annual economic worth to help poor nations fight global warming.

"Ultimately, there will have to be compromise in Copenhagen, because these negotiations can't be allowed to collapse," said He, the Tsinghua professor. "If they do fall apart, that will be devastating, and nobody will be spared the repercussions."

SETTING THE AGENDA

But China is also looking to take some of the initiative in climate change politics by setting its own the path to lower greenhouse gas emissions and eventual outright reductions.

The nation's next five-year development plan, starting from 2011, will focus on creating a "low-carbon economy" by reducing coal use and encouraging clean energy, said Wang Yi, an expert on climate change at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

"In the past, China has been reactive in policy-making, responding when the West has put forward its demands," said Wang, chief author of a recent 415-page study laying out a blueprint for a low-carbon economy.

"Now instead of others criticizing us, we're saying, 'Why don't we take the initiative by proposing our own policy goals?'"

These proposals build on China's goals to cut the amount of energy expended for each unit of economic worth by 20 percent between 2006 and the end of 2010, and to steeply lift use of wind, solar, nuclear and hydro power.

One idea backed by some experts calls for carbon intensity targets, spelling out goals for cutting the amount of CO2 emitted to create each unit of economic worth.

"We must incorporate addressing climate change and reducing the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions into national economic and social development plans," said the summary of a meeting on energy and climate change issues chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao on Friday, according to the central government website (www.gov.cn).

China could offer to halve its carbon intensity by 2020 compared to 2005 levels, given the right funding and technology incentives from rich nations, said Wang.

But Beijing will remain reluctant to incorporate many of its domestic initiatives into an international treaty, especially any vows on emissions levels, said experts.

China stresses that global warming has been caused by the historically high emissions of wealthy nations, and fears signing international commitments it may not be able to meet, said Wang.