Oil seen below $100 while gold and grains firm: analysts
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Crude oil prices may fall below $100 a barrel in the coming months after the market reached a point that has choked off demand, but gold and grain prices still look firm, commodity analysts said on Tuesday.
"For the first time probably in seven or eight years we're predicting oil prices will actually go lower. There's a possibility ... that the high oil price that we've seen this year will not be exceeded next year," Phil Flynn, vice president and energy analyst with Alaron Trading Corp, told a commodities outlook meeting at the Chicago Board of Trade, a CME Group (CME.O) unit.
"Look for oil to get down to double digits, back near $99" a barrel, Flynn said, barring any unforeseen natural disaster like hurricanes that could temporarily affect supply.
NYMEX December crude oil was down $2.52 at $123.57 a barrel on Tuesday, down from a record $148.60 set on July 11.
Flynn also forecast that retail gasoline prices could fall more than $1 per gallon to about $3 and heating oil futures slip to around $2.20 a gallon from current levels. NYMEX December heating oil was down 8.70 cents at $3.6015 on Tuesday, down from its record high July 11 of $4.2935.
Crude oil has been the leader of the commodities sector as investors flocked to oil, metals and grains as a hedge against inflation and the weak economic U.S. outlook.
Commodities have outperformed stocks and bonds over the past year -- with indexes rising to record highs in 2008.
Despite the weak U.S. economy and mushrooming financial market crises, interest in commodities continues to be rooted in bullish fundamentals: a weak dollar, Asian demand for food and raw materials and a legislated boom in biofuels.
At least in the case of crude oil, however, escalating prices appears to be trimming demand, Flynn said.
"We could see a disassociation of oil from gold and the grains," he said. "If you look at the demand side, we are seeing the most significant demand destruction in oil that we've probably seen in the history of oil."
The U.S. Transportation Department on Monday reported a steep drop in highway miles driven in May, by a record 3.7 percent. The 9.6 billion miles less traveled was the biggest drop ever for any May, when traffic usually rises due to the Memorial Day holiday and the beginning of summer vacations.
Flynn also noted that Chinese utilities are exporting oil for the first time in seven years after switching to coal as an energy source to avoid high oil prices.
GRAINS, GOLD SEEN FIRM OVER COMING YEAR
Other analysts speaking at the conference were bullish on grains and gold, all still well above price ranges that, until the last two years, had been the norm for decades.
"You need to see two things happen for a major top in commodities," said David Hightower, analyst and editor of The Hightower Report. "A major economic collapse or significant reduction in demand. So far, especially in the grain markets we have not see that reduction in demand." Continued...
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