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U.S. economy healthy despite high oil-energy execs

Thu Jun 23, 2005 3:23pm EDT

Reporter's Notebook

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By David Brinkerhoff

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy remains healthy, say top energy executives, despite record high oil prices which have raised fears that last year's recovery may collapse.

Market players worry that the cost of oil -- used in every nook of the economy from gasoline to shirt buttons -- could hurt consumer demand and manufacturing as the fuel touched a record price of $60 a barrel.

U.S. growth is moderating rather than grinding to a halt, according to oilmen and chemical executives at the Reuters Energy Summit this week.

"At this point I would say the U.S. economy looks reasonably good," said Lee Raymond, chief executive of Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the world's largest oil company.

"It's not obvious that the run-up in prices has had a significant impact on demand," he said, but added: "I don't think you could say it's had no impact."

Most executives see gross domestic product growing about 3.5 percent this year, down from more than 4.4 percent last year and largely in line with expectations. Global GDP growth is led by China's growth rate of more than 9 percent, while Latin American remains solid and Europe stagnates, executives said.

"The energy price ... it's a worry but it hasn't dampened anything in our end-use markets ... other than a moderation compared to the higher growth last year," said Andrew Liveris, CEO of Dow Chemical Co. (DOW.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the largest U.S. chemicals maker.

"If the term 'soft landing' applies, I think we're well past a soft landing," he said, adding: "I don't see any signs -- nor does Mr. Greenspan -- that worry us."

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, whose comments are touchstones for the economy's health, recently dismissed concerns of a serious slowdown, giving the go-ahead to further increases in interest rates.

Still, some Wall Street experts have worried a manufacturing slowdown and periodically weak job growth may be warnings signs of broader weakening.

Further shocks may also hit the economy, warned some energy gurus. While consumers tolerated $50 crude, a $60 price could make them pause and demand would drop before prices of $70 to $100.

Also, American drivers would find it hard to tolerate $3 gasoline.

"I think you're going to see $3 gasoline in the United States within the next year and that'll bring on a shock," longtime oil investor Boone Pickens told Reuters reporters.

He added that $60 oil "may slow everything down"

 
 
 
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