JOHANNESBURG May 16 South Africa is the Saudi
Arabia of platinum with steroids thrown in.
But Pretoria could never manipulate the platinum price the
way the Middle Eastern kingdom can influence oil's and talk of a
platinum cartel, perhaps along the lines of the Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is a pipe-dream.
The world's top platinum producers, South Africa and Russia,
agreed to attempt to cope with excess supplies of the metal
through a memorandum of understanding signed in March during the
BRICS emerging market powers meeting in Durban.
South Africa's mines minister Susan Shabangu spoke of
"balancing" rather than "controlling the market" while still
expressing concern about oversupply and prices. Confusingly,
Russian officials said influencing prices was not the aim.
If not, then what would be the ultimate aim of cooperation
between the platinum powerhouses, especially if one of the
parties' stated goals is to "balance" the market?
This has sparked speculation about how supplies could be
reined in to lift prices for the white metal used to build
emissions-capping catalytic converters in automobiles.
Talk has ranged from an OPEC-type model to something far
more modest, along the lines of marketing cooperation, but
getting anything off the ground is unlikely as the crude and
platinum industries are like oil and water.
For starters, crude production in Saudi Arabia is firmly in
the hands of the state through the national oil company Aramco.
Over the past few years, it has been almost alone in OPEC in
actually curbing production intentionally as other members have
refrained from doing so because of concerns over lost revenue.
South Africa may sit on 80 percent of the world's known
platinum reserves but unlike in Saudi Arabia, there is no state
company pulling its coveted resource out of the ground.
So any calls for production cuts would have to get a buy-in
from several companies especially the top three producers of
the precious metal: Anglo American Platinum (Amplats),
Impala Platinum and Lonmin.
They in fact would like to cut some output to boost moribund
prices which mean many shafts are currently unprofitable. Spot
platinum on Thursday fetched $1,469.74 an ounce, down 34
percent from a record high of $2,240 hit in March 2008.
But their hands are tied on a number of fronts.
The first is political. The government may be concerned
about supply and prices but it also does not want production
cuts because jobs would be lost with them.
Amplats, seeking to restore profits after falling into loss
last year, had to back down from an initial target of 14,000 job
cuts in the face of stiff resistance from unions, the government
and the ruling African National Congress (ANC).
It will now aim to cut 6,000 jobs and even that scaled-back
proposal has triggered a threat from the militant Association of
Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) to bring production to
a halt on Thursday night in protest.
PLATINUM TAP TOUGH TO CAP
Platinum's labour-intensive nature and South African
regulations also mean that unlike crude, its "taps" cannot be
turned off and on at will.
For example, closing a shaft for even a few months would
mean laying off thousands of workers. And South African
legislation requires employers to give 2 months' notice and
engage in talks before it can take such action.
So the government's sensitivity about job losses - not least
because a key union ally has lost tens of thousands of members
to AMCU this past year - and its labour policies make targeted
platinum production cuts all but impossible.
Unfortunately for the government and the industry, violent
labour unrest has been the biggest threat to supplies over the
past 15 months and the only real trend that has supported prices
amid subdued demand from key markets such as Europe.
Last year that cost the producers and the state billions of
dollars in lost revenue and led to credit downgrades for
Africa's largest economy.
South Africa lost at least 750,000 ounces of platinum output
last year to strikes, shaft closures and government-ordered
safety stoppages, metals refiner Johnson Matthey said in a
report on Monday.
During last year's periodic outbreaks of violent, wildcat
strikes, the platinum price would get a lift though it was often
The government can also hardly afford to take excess
platinum off the market by buying it from the producers and then
storing it. In fact, such an exercise would just put more of a
drain on state coffers if it succeeded in driving the price up.
What the industry can do is get together on the small
aspects they can change, like a marketing drive to boost demand
for platinum jewellery.
"Bearing in mind the issues around the competitive
environment, when it comes to jewellery, for example, there has
been good cooperation in terms of promoting platinum jewels -
and that is one of the examples of what can be done," Lonmin's
acting CEO Simon Scott said.
But OPEC, it's not. In the short term, markets and labour
mayhem will be the main drivers of the metal's price.