ANALYSIS-Andean tensions will remain despite handshakes
By Fiona Ortiz
CARACAS, March 7 (Reuters) - Andean leaders seemed to reach a friendly resolution on Friday to the region's deepest diplomatic crisis in years, but analysts warn of lingering tensions after a Colombian raid into Ecuador to kill guerrillas.
Colombian President Alvaro Uribe apologized to Ecuador and shook hands with Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa, who had traveled around the region all week calling Uribe a liar.
Venezuela's anti-U.S. leader Hugo Chavez joined the handshakes on Friday after leading Latin America's condemnation of Colombia and sending troops to his border to prevent what he called the threat of a U.S.-backed Colombian invasion.
But the tensions are unlikely to dissipate given Colombia's position as the lone U.S. ally in an increasingly anti-Washington region and Uribe's ongoing war on the FARC that could lead to further incursions on his neighbors' soil.
"The underlying tension is pretty strong. The situation is now calmed down for the moment, but in the mid-term the tensions are still there," said Patricio Navia, a political analyst at New York University and Santiago's Diego Portales University.
Correa and Chavez will remain sympathetic to the FARC, a Marxist group now largely funded by the drug trade, which has killed thousands of Colombians in a four-decade conflict.
Latin American nations lined up to condemn Colombia, while George W. Bush defended Uribe, who receives billions of dollars of U.S. aid to fight the drug trade and the rebels.
But even though Uribe appeared isolated as he sat through hostile speeches at Friday's Rio Group summit of Latin American presidents in the Dominican Republic capital of Santo Domingo, analysts said he now holds strong cards that will force leaders around the region to support his anti-FARC campaign.
He now holds a treasure trove of information about the FARC found in computers seized in the raid in Ecuador, which he says proves the guerrillas were being aided by Correa and Chavez.
"There's a lot of information there that helps Colombian intelligence," said Jose Vicente Carrasquero, professor of political science at the Venezuelan Central University in Caracas. "They are going to try to take advantage of that, they have cards to play and they are going to play them."
HANDSHAKES ALL AROUND
The fight between Chavez and Uribe was not the first over the FARC, Latin America's oldest insurgency. Three years ago the two suffered a similar spat after Colombians kidnapped a FARC rebel in Venezuelan territory.
Comparing the FARC to the revolutionary movements in Latin America in the past, leftist leaders on Friday from Nicaragua and Bolivia joined in the criticism of Uribe -- whose hard line against the highly unpopular FARC has made him popular among his conflict-weary people.
But Uribe insisted that a drug-trafficking-funded group that is attacking a democratically elected government is not the same as revolutions against past dictatorships.
"The Colombian government has a lot of information now about what the FARC is doing with Venezuela and Ecuador .... I don't think Chavez is sleeping that well," Navia said.
He said Chavez will have to move fast to negotiate with the FARC so that they release more of the hostages they have held for years in their jungle camps, to justify his connections with the group.
Chavez has already negotiated the release of six hostages this year even though Uribe had tried to remove him from the negotiating process.
Political experts said the raid in Ecuador, which killed the No. 2 of the FARC, and the death of another important FARC leader this week, mean the guerrilla group is weakened and may have to accept Uribe's terms for negotiation and prisoner exchanges instead of the other way around.
(Editing by Philip Barbara)
CARACAS, March 7 (Reuters) - Andean leaders seemed to reach a friendly resolution on Friday to the region's deepest diplomatic crisis in years, but analysts warn of lingering tensions after a Colombian raid into Ecuador to kill guerrillas.
Colombian President Alvaro Uribe apologized to Ecuador and shook hands with Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa, who had traveled around the region all week calling Uribe a liar.
Venezuela's anti-U.S. leader Hugo Chavez joined the handshakes on Friday after leading Latin America's condemnation of Colombia and sending troops to his border to prevent what he called the threat of a U.S.-backed Colombian invasion.
But the tensions are unlikely to dissipate given Colombia's position as the lone U.S. ally in an increasingly anti-Washington region and Uribe's ongoing war on the FARC that could lead to further incursions on his neighbors' soil.
"The underlying tension is pretty strong. The situation is now calmed down for the moment, but in the mid-term the tensions are still there," said Patricio Navia, a political analyst at New York University and Santiago's Diego Portales University.
Correa and Chavez will remain sympathetic to the FARC, a Marxist group now largely funded by the drug trade, which has killed thousands of Colombians in a four-decade conflict.
Latin American nations lined up to condemn Colombia, while George W. Bush defended Uribe, who receives billions of dollars of U.S. aid to fight the drug trade and the rebels.
But even though Uribe appeared isolated as he sat through hostile speeches at Friday's Rio Group summit of Latin American presidents in the Dominican Republic capital of Santo Domingo, analysts said he now holds strong cards that will force leaders around the region to support his anti-FARC campaign.
He now holds a treasure trove of information about the FARC found in computers seized in the raid in Ecuador, which he says proves the guerrillas were being aided by Correa and Chavez.
"There's a lot of information there that helps Colombian intelligence," said Jose Vicente Carrasquero, professor of political science at the Venezuelan Central University in Caracas. "They are going to try to take advantage of that, they have cards to play and they are going to play them."
HANDSHAKES ALL AROUND
The fight between Chavez and Uribe was not the first over the FARC, Latin America's oldest insurgency. Three years ago the two suffered a similar spat after Colombians kidnapped a FARC rebel in Venezuelan territory.
Comparing the FARC to the revolutionary movements in Latin America in the past, leftist leaders on Friday from Nicaragua and Bolivia joined in the criticism of Uribe -- whose hard line against the highly unpopular FARC has made him popular among his conflict-weary people.
But Uribe insisted that a drug-trafficking-funded group that is attacking a democratically elected government is not the same as revolutions against past dictatorships.
"The Colombian government has a lot of information now about what the FARC is doing with Venezuela and Ecuador .... I don't think Chavez is sleeping that well," Navia said.
He said Chavez will have to move fast to negotiate with the FARC so that they release more of the hostages they have held for years in their jungle camps, to justify his connections with the group.
Chavez has already negotiated the release of six hostages this year even though Uribe had tried to remove him from the negotiating process.
Political experts said the raid in Ecuador, which killed the No. 2 of the FARC, and the death of another important FARC leader this week, mean the guerrilla group is weakened and may have to accept Uribe's terms for negotiation and prisoner exchanges instead of the other way around.
(Editing by Philip Barbara)
© Thomson Reuters 2008 All rights reserved
Sphere
Piracy fight
Obama skips wounded troop visit
