* Strong growth in much of Asia boosts rate hike views
* Forecasts contrast with those for weak Western economies
* Reserve Bank of India lifts rates by 25 bps as expected
* Australia c.bank signals further tightening, Aussie up
* New Zealand bucks trend as inflation lower-than-expected
By Tony Munroe and Koh Gui Qing
MUMBAI/SYDNEY, April 20 India raised interest
rates for the second straight month on Tuesday and Australia
signalled it may tighten policy further as the region's
economies rapidly recover, putting pressure on policymakers to
keep inflation in check.
Central banks in much of the region have been leading the
world in unwinding emergency stimulus put in place during the
global financial crisis, unlike their counterparts in the West
which are seeing far slower and more uneven economic
India and Australia are the only two Group of 20 economies
to have raised rates so far.
But weaker-than-expected inflation in the first quarter in
New Zealand prompted investors to pare back expectations of a
rate increase to July from June, pushing the kiwi dollar (NZD=>
down sharply. [ID:nSGE63I00O]
The Reserve Bank of India raised its key policy rates by 25
basis points each, as expected, and also lifted its cash
reserve ratio requirement for banks by quarter of a percentage
point to drain more liquidity from the financial system as it
battles inflation near double digits.
"With the recovery now firmly in place, we need to move in
a calibrated manner in the direction of normalising our policy
instruments," RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said in a policy
statement, after it raised its key short-term borrowing rate,
or reverse repo, to 3.75 percent. [ID:nSGE63J098]
Asia's third-largest economy is set to grow by 8.5 percent
in the current financial year and 9 percent the next, and
inflation is spreading beyond food to fuel and manufactured
goods such as cars. Annual inflation reached 9.9 percent in
March, it fastest pace in 17 months.
Analysts expect the RBI to continue increasing interest
rates throughout the year to bring them back towards pre-crisis
Only China is growing faster among the world's major
economies. Its central bank has already moved to drain further
cash from the banking system and clamp down on lending, and
analyst expect it to start raising rates this quarter.
By contrast, a much slower recovery in the United States
and Europe means interest rates there will likely remain on
hold for some time yet.
Elsewhere, Sweden's central bank is expected to hold rates
steady at 0.25 percent when it announces its policy statement
at 0730 GMT, with the first rate rise expected only in July,
according to a Reuters poll. [ID:nLDE63D17E]
The Bank of Canada is also seen keeping rates steady later
in the day, though it is widely expected to send a message to
markets about future rate hikes. [ID:nN15256700]
The U.S. Federal Reserve will next meet on April 27-28 and
the European Central Bank on May 6.
A recent Reuters poll showed big banks which deal directly
with the Fed saw only a 62 percent chance of it raising rates
before the end of this year. [FED/R]
In Australia, minutes from the central bank's rate meeting
earlier this month showed policymakers felt a boom in export
earnings meant it could not delay a further hike in rates,
leading investors to wager on another rise by June at the
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) felt a hike to 4.25
percent, its fifth in six policy meetings, was needed because
surging prices for iron ore and coal exports would boost the
economy more than expected just a few months ago.
The Australian dollar AUD=D4 rose to $0.9275 after the
minutes, from $0.9256 before. Implied rates CSRBA=CSAU showed
the chance of a move in May edged up to 28 percent, from 25
percent, while interbank futures <0#YIB:> implied a 64 percent
of a hike in June.
"A swift move to get back to normal levels seems almost
certain," said Bill Evans, the chief economist at Westpac.
"We think that the next move will be in either May or June,
and on balance, the very clear emphasis on the resources boom
tips the scales towards May."
The minutes showed the RBA thought at the April meeting
that rates were "a little below average", and that the April
move was a step in the process of returning them to "normal"
levels -- or between 4.5 and 5.0 percent according to many
(Writing by Kazunori Takada; Editing by Kim Coghill)