* U.S. experts vote against accelerated approval of olaparib
* Research productivity central in defence to Pfizer bid
* AstraZeneca mis-steps may revive prospects of takeover
By Ben Hirschler
LONDON, June 26 A vote by U.S. experts against
accelerated approval of a new ovarian cancer drug from
AstraZeneca has dented its claims of research prowess,
which were used to see off a $118 billion bid from Pfizer
In itself, the setback will have little impact on earnings
prospects - but it coincides with heightened scrutiny of the
British drugmaker's research and development (R&D) machine and
continued talk that Pfizer may return if it stumbles.
Pfizer backed off last month after AstraZeneca trumpeted its
drug pipeline and predicted sales would climb 75 percent to $45
billion by 2023 - a highly ambitious target.
But many shareholders are unhappy that the Anglo-Swedish
group did not engage with Pfizer and problems with important new
drugs may stir discontent.
The U.S. group could revive its plan later this year to
forge the world's biggest drugmaker, in a move that would also
cut its tax bill through moving its tax base to Britain.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Oncologic Drugs
Advisory Committee (ODAC) said on Wednesday that AstraZeneca
should be required to submit further clinical data before its
experimental medicine olaparib is approved.
"The rejection by ODAC comes at a critical time because
failed R&D efforts may make AstraZeneca shareholders more
inclined to push AstraZeneca into Pfizer's arms," said Bernstein
analyst Tim Anderson. "Every bit of slippage at the company
probably does tilt the balance slightly more in favour of a
future Pfizer-AstraZeneca tie-up."
Anderson sees a less than 50 percent chance of either
AstraZeneca inviting Pfizer back to talks or the U.S. company
returning with a higher offer, but said the situation remained
fluid. Other analysts are more upbeat on a deal.
BNP Paribas said in a research note this week that an
increased offer of around $127 billion would still make economic
sense, while Jefferies earlier this month predicted an 80
percent probability of AstraZeneca inviting Pfizer back after an
enforced cooling-off period ends in late August.
Given the present hiatus, many hedge funds have switched
attention away from AstraZeneca to the likes of AbbVie's
attempt to buy Shire, industry sources said.
Other factors could also encourage or deter Pfizer's renewed
interest, including any move by AstraZeneca to make a large
acquisition of its own or dispose of certain drugs. The company
has already said it is partnering talks for an experimental
Cancer is the most valuable element in AstraZeneca's
pipeline and earlier this month it received generally positive
feedback when experimental findings with new treatments were
presented at a major U.S. conference.
But the real test for new drugs is winning approval from
regulators and getting prescriptions written by doctors.
AstraZeneca said it was disappointed by the ODAC decision,
which means it is likely to have to wait for further clinical
trial data due at the end of 2015, rather than getting a
hoped-for green light in October.
Seamus Fernandez, an analyst at Leerink, said the decision
was a surprise and would substantially narrow AstraZeneca's lead
over smaller rivals Tesaro and Clovis, which
are also developing similar so-called PARP inhibitor drugs.
AstraZeneca has flagged olaparib as a potential $2
billion-a-year seller, although some industry analysts see sales
at less than half that amount.
A company spokeswoman said the monotherapy use of olaparib
for ovarian cancer assessed by the U.S. expert panel this week
was only one element of a broad development programme.
AstraZeneca is also assessing olaparib in combination with
another medicine called cediranib, as well as looking at it as a
potential therapy for breast and gastric cancers.
($1 = 0.5889 British Pounds)
(editing by David Stamp)