* Falling swap rates allow banks to slash fixed-rate
* But variable rates also need to fall to truly entice
* Puts the onus on the RBA to ease policy further
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Feb 11 Australia's banks are cutting the
cost of fixed-rate mortgages to their lowest in over two decades
as a marked fall in funding costs and fierce competition combine
to offer a glimpse of light in a moribund housing market.
Any easing in financial conditions will be welcomed by the
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which is counting on a revival
in home building to help cushion the economy as a long boom in
mining investment cools later this year.
The banks' generosity has not extended to variable rates,
however, which cover the vast bulk of the country's A$1.3
trillion ($1.7 trillion) in home loans, leaving the onus on the
RBA to cut official rates if it is serious about a housing
"The banks are not going to cut variable rates on their own.
And first-home buyers need to know that rates are going to stay
down for them to have the confidence to jump into the market,"
said Brian Redican, a senior economist at Macquarie.
"Only the RBA can do all that."
While the central bank did ease in both October and
December, the impact on borrowing has been all but
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics out on Monday
showed the number of home loans taken out in December dropped
1.5 percent, the third straight falls and a five-month low.
Annual growth in housing credit slowed to an all-time trough
of 4.5 percent at the end of 2012, a long way from the
double-digit pace common in the previous two decades. Indeed,
growth peaked at no less than 22 percent in 2004.
That could be one reason the central bank struck an
unusually mournful tone in its quarterly report card on the
economy last week, lamenting the lack of life in investment
spending outside mining.
The outlook for tame inflation and gradually rising
unemployment fuelled expectations that not only would the RBA
likely have to cut the cash rate again, but that it would also
have to keep it low for longer.
It is this dawning realisation in markets that has dragged
down key swap rates in recent weeks. The rate on three-month
swaps hit an all-time trough early in February at 2.92 percent
, lower even than during the global financial crisis.
That is important for banks as fixed-rate mortgages are
priced off the swap curve, giving them scope to ease
independently of any move in official rates.
FALLING NOT FIXED
The average fixed rate at the end of January was already the
lowest in two decades at 5.52 percent, but the latest cuts by
banks mean it's even lower now.
Westpac lopped 40 basis points off its packaged
two-year fixed rate taking it to 4.99 percent. St. George cut
its entire fixed rate suite, from one to five years. Rates for a
three-year fixed loan from the CBA, NAB and
ANZ are all at 5.29 percent.
Still, while fixed-rates have been coming down for months
their popularity still lags. Late last year, 14 percent of new
loans had fixed rates, up from 10 percent six months earlier.
Lower variable rates would have a much bigger impact on
housing demand, and there are signs that intense competition is
driving banks to offer better deals.
While the average standard variable rate is around 6.44
percent, a couple of phone calls to banks will get a discount of
75 to 100 basis points from that.
But the banks are reluctant to ease any further on their own
since much of their funding comes from deposits, rather than
markets, and rates on those accounts remain relatively high.
Deposits now make up 54 percent of the banks' total funding,
a marked increase from pre-crisis levels around 40 percent
-riven in part by tougher regulations.
But the competition for that money is fierce, making it
costly. Rates on bonus saver accounts have increased by 250
basis points relative to the cash rate since 2009.
This shift in the funding mix is one reason the cash rate
may have to fall further than in the past to get the same bang
for the buck.
Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, notes that at
this stage of the easing cycle back in 2009, house prices were
rising 12 percent annually while approvals to build new homes
were up 41 percent on the year. The latest comparable numbers
are 1.8 percent and 13 percent.
"Most economic indicators remain far weaker than they
normally are this far into an interest rate easing cycle,
suggesting monetary conditions are still too tight."
(Editing by Eric Meijer)