Despite warming, ships to shun Northwest Passage

By David Ljunggren

OTTAWA, Oct 3 (Reuters) - While there has been much talk that Arctic trade routes will open up as northern ice melts, shipping companies and experts say using the fabled Northwest Passage through Canada's Arctic archipelago would be too difficult, too dangerous and totally impractical.

In theory, the idea is tempting -- the passage cuts the distance between Europe and the Far East to just 7,900 nautical miles (14,630 km), from 12,600 nautical miles through the Panama Canal.

Global warming means that the summer ice cover in Canada's Arctic is shrinking at such a rapid rate that experts predict the waters could be clear for at least part of the year within a few decades.

Yet few predict vessels will steam through the Passage in any great numbers.

The highly unpredictable nature of Arctic ice, a total lack of infrastructure, narrow channels, relatively shallow waters, increased insurance costs and the unwillingness of firms to take risks are all to blame.

"No one in the industry is really talking about the Northwest Passage being a serious alternative to the Panama Canal, even if it does open up at all," said Simon Bennett, secretary of the International Chamber of Shipping in London.

"There are navigational challenges, so many 'ifs' and 'buts' and the idea that you are going to take merchant ships with deep draughts through icy waters that are uncharted, really means that currently it is no match for the canal."