| NEW YORK, July 10
NEW YORK, July 10 Boeing Co made its most
bullish 20-year forecast for jetliner demand since 2011, saying
on Thursday the world will need 36,770 new planes worth $5.2
trillion by 2033.
The company's annual projection is up 4.2 percent from its
2013 forecast, and it predicted beating rival Airbus Group NV
in the lucrative market for twin-aisle planes as the
planes are built and delivered over the next two decades.
"If Airbus doesn't do something with their product strategy,
they're headed to 30-35 percent market share" in deliveries of
next-generation twin-aisle aircraft, Randy Tinseth, Boeing's
vice president of marketing, told reporters in a briefing.
Boeing's 787 and 777X jets already make up 65 percent of all
current orders, with the Airbus A350 accounting for the rest,
and that gap will widen unless Airbus develops another jet as a
competitor, he said.
Planes are delivered years after orders are placed, so the
final numbers may change as airlines change their plans.
Airbus has disputed Boeing's numbers, saying it is already
winning most orders in twin-aisle aircraft when looking at
Airbus is considering embarking on development of such a
jet, and may launch the project at the Farnborough Airshow next
week. The jet, dubbed the A330neo, would be a revamped version
of Airbus' twin-aisle A330 jetliner with new efficient engines
made by Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC.
Boeing's annual forecast, released in conjunction with the
airshow, said single-aisle airplanes such as the 737 and A320
will garner the most orders, reflecting booming demand for air
travel in Asia and the growth of low-cost carriers there.
Last year Boeing predicted a 20-year need for 35,280 planes
valued at $4.8 trillion.
About 40 percent of single-aisle planes built in the next
two decades will go to low-cost carriers, and a large share of
will be in China, Tinseth said. He predicted China would
overtake the United States as the world's largest domestic air
travel market in the next 20 years.
Twin-aisle planes also will attract strong demand. But
Boeing notched back its forecast for jumbo jets such as the
Boeing 747 and Airbus A380. It expects airlines to need about
620 of those over the next 20 years, down from the 760 it
forecast last year.
"That's the market that has really struggled to take hold,"
Boeing expects airlines to buy 25,680 new single-aisle
planes over 20 years, and that the global fleet will double to
42,180. About 58 percent of those planes will represent growth
at airlines. The rest will replace retired aircraft.
Boeing cut its forecast for air-cargo growth this year to
4.7 percent from 5 percent in 2013, but said the trend is stable
and will continue to support production of the 747-8 freighter
and freight versions of its popular 777 jet.
(Reporting by Alwyn Scott; Additional reporting by Tim Hepher
in London; Editing by Richard Chang)