(Refiles to additional subscribers with no changes to the text)
* Improved tone headed into new year
* Central banks seen driving sentiment
* Regulatory needs clamping bank issuance
By Natalie Harrison
LONDON, Dec 7 (IFR) - Europe's credit markets are heading
into 2013 in much better shape than 12 months ago, after
unprecedented central bank commitments helped put a lid on a
crisis of confidence.
Issuers are now seeing some of the best conditions in a long
time, investors are willing to embrace riskier credits in the
hunt for yield, and the market is altogether on a sounder
"The outlook is much brighter for next year," said Martin
Egan, global head of primary markets at BNP Paribas. "But there
are still plenty of risks and constraints that will impact
Soothing talk from the European Central Bank has helped
mitigate those risks in the minds of many investors, as ECB
chief Mario Draghi insisted he would not let the euro come
Boosted in part by those comments, and bolstered by the
backstop of the ECB's OMT programme, Europe's peripheral
sovereigns have come in from the cold. Ten-year yields on Spain
and Italy have plunged from over 7% to 5.2% and 4.4%,
respectively -- and broader credit indices are now around their
And as central banks maintain the low-rates environment,
investors are likely to welcome a much wider piece of the credit
spectrum into their portfolios.
"Central banks will likely continue to drive market
sentiment, while investors' search for yield could enhance
market access for infrequent and less well-known issuers," said
Melissa Smith, head of EMEA high-grade debt capital markets at
TOTALLING IT UP
Certainly the markets will be hard-pressed to replicate
2012's stellar returns in investment-grade (12%) and high-yield
But the fragile outlook for economic growth should help
maintain the strong inflows into credit markets, where supply is
likely to continue to be strong.
Euro-denominated corporate issuance this year is the
second-highest annual total in the past decade.
"Corporate issuance should be robust in 2013 as the
bank-to-bond trend continues. But we will likely need M&A
activity to see high-grade volumes rise to EUR230bn, a net
EUR90bn increase," said Mark Lewellen, head of European
corporate DCM at Barclays.
M&A activity has largely been muted in 2012. The leveraged
buyout market has disappointed, mainly due to mismatched price
expectations between buyers and sellers,
And a continued lack of large-scale M&A in 2013 will mean
less opportunities for private equity firms which often benefit
from picking up non-core assets.
Even so, the high-yield market is one of the most promising
areas for growth, bankers say.
"Unless we see an uptick in M&A activity, the leveraged loan
markets will likely continue to see limited deal flow," said
Kristian Orssten, head of EMEA high-yield and loan capital
markets at JP Morgan.
"The trends of bank deleveraging and lack of new replacement
CLO issuance will again dominate the agenda in 2013."
High yield bond markets will therefore continue to increase
its importance as an alternative funding source, with most
issuance in high-yield related to refinancing.
"Of all capital markets, the growth prospects of high-yield
is the one market that we feel most optimistic about," Orssten
Meanwhile bank deleveraging in the face of new capital
regulations is suppressing senior unsecured bank issuance, which
is already at half the peak volumes seen five years ago.
Although senior unsecured funding will remain subdued, any
peripheral issuance will be a key test of sentiment - especially
as the risk of bail-in draws closer and investors become more
concerned about restructurings that could lead to haircuts on
"Senior funding for bank periphery is a real barometer of
investor sentiment," said Richard Boath, co-head of global
finance, EMEA, at Barclays.
But capital raising will dominate the financial landscape.
Regulatory uncertainty will mean that issuers focus on Tier
2 bonds to boost capital rather than Tier 1. A focus on
shorter-dated floaters may also be more common.
As much as EUR200bn of Tier 2 could potentially hit the
market over the next few years, and once rules governing Tier 1
are clearer, issuance could be as large as EUR150bn, Citi said.
However, hybrid bankers warn that structures could be
complex. They predict greater granularity among bank Tier 2
issuance, as issuers grapple with local regulatory requirements,
or seek to address specific balance sheet needs.
In the covered bond space, peripheral jurisdictions will
feature as the main growth areas. Global benchmark volumes are
expected to grow by around 5% to EUR160bn-equivalent next year
and EUR165bn in 2014, according to Credit Agricole.
BULLISH ON IRELAND
On the sovereign side, issuance is expected to be 13% lower
in 2013 at USD5.25trn, with a sharp contraction in Europe as
gross supply falls by EUR80bn to EUR759bn, Morgan Stanley said.
But bankers are bullish that Ireland will make a return to
syndicated markets, driven by a political will to show that
struggling countries are on the mend.
European supranational and agency supply is expected to
trump the record volumes of EUR504bn in 2012, rising to EUR520bn
in 2013. The massive front-loading experienced in 2011, however,
is unlikely to be repeated with as much fervour.
"Markets are much more constructive, with some issuers
already pre-funded, so the first months of 2013 could be a
little different," said Dan Shane, head of SSA syndicate at
(Reporting by Natalie Harrison, Josie Cox, Aimee Donnellan,
John Geddie and Alex Chambers; Editing by Marc Carnegie)